Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction, Tips & Odds
Gremio vs Fluminense
Match Preview
The model favours Fluminense to win against Gremio, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fluminense currently sits in a strong third position on the Serie A table, with a total of 31 points from 18 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid offensive performance, scoring 28 goals, which is among the higher totals in the league. With three wins in their last five matches, Fluminense is demonstrating consistent form, making them a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Gremio is struggling in 16th place, having accumulated just 21 points from 18 games. Their goal difference of -3 indicates vulnerabilities in their defence, having conceded 23 goals while managing to score only 20. With a mixed recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, Gremio will need to improve significantly to challenge a team like Fluminense. The model output suggests a win probability of 55% for Fluminense, with Gremio at 25%, and a 20% chance for a draw. One key market percentage indicates that Fluminense is expected to score at least two goals. However, Gremio's home advantage could play a critical role in the match outcome. For a detailed look at how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Gremio manage games at home, conceding just 1.03 goals per match. Fluminense score 1.39 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.2% probability.
Fluminense have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Fluminense are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Gremio vs Fluminense| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.15 | 3.20 | 2.28 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 3.15 | 3.20 | 2.26 | 1.99 | 1.79 | 1.74 | 1.95 | |
| 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 3.31 | 3.30 | 2.34 | 2.05 | 1.84 | — | — | |
| 2.63 | 3.19 | 2.53 | 2.03 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.25 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.27 | 3.29 | 2.31 | 2.03 | 1.82 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
| 3.05 | 3.20 | 2.35 | 2.04 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.97 | |
Betano | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.32 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.35 | 2.05 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.30 | 2.25 | 1.94 | 1.74 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Gremio leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Gremio and Fluminense, Gremio has won 5 times, Fluminense 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The results indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, as evidenced by four matches ending with a scoreline of 1-0. However, there have also been higher-scoring encounters, including a 3-2 victory for Gremio. Fluminense's last win was in August 2025, suggesting that Gremio has had the upper hand recently. Overall, while Gremio holds a slight edge in wins, the matches have been relatively tight with no dominant trend.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 22 | 47 | WLWWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 18 | 19 | 39 | DDWWL |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 37 | DWWWW |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 34 | DDDDL |
| 5 |  Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 32 | DDDWW |
| 6 |  RB Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 31 | DDWWW |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 25 | WDLLW |
| 19 |  Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 | DLLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGremio have won 11 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Bolívar 0-1 and drew with Fluminense 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 13D 11L from the last 38 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fluminense have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Vasco DA Gama 0-0 and drew with Gremio 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 13D 8L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedGremio4-3-3Confirmed
Fluminense4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersGremio5
Fluminense5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
E. Batista has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Gremio have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Fluminense 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fluminense have generated 1.27 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fluminense player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
