Cruzeiro vs Botafogo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cruzeiro vs Botafogo
Match Preview
The model favours Cruzeiro to win against Botafogo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Cruzeiro currently sits in 11th place in the Serie A standings with 24 points from 18 matches. Their recent form has been strong, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating a positive trend. Notably, they have scored 24 goals this season while conceding 28, showing an ability to find the net despite some defensive vulnerabilities. Botafogo, on the other hand, occupies 12th place with 22 points from 17 matches. Their performance has been inconsistent, as evidenced by their last five matches, where they secured three wins, one draw, and one loss. With a goal difference of zero, having scored and conceded 31 goals, Botafogo's season has been marked by a lack of defensive solidity, which could be a concern going into this match. According to the model, Cruzeiro has a win probability of approximately 55% against Botafogo, with the projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to note is that Cruzeiro is favoured to win at around 45% in the betting markets. However, a potential pitfall for Cruzeiro could be their defensive record, which may allow Botafogo to capitalize on any mistakes. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results over the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Cruzeiro manage games at home, conceding just 0.92 goals per match. Botafogo score 1.51 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
Cruzeiro have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Cruzeiro clean sheets, in line with their 45% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Cruzeiro are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cruzeiro vs Botafogo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.75 | 3.68 | 4.40 | 1.79 | 1.99 | 1.71 | 1.99 | |
| 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.33 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.78 | 3.91 | 4.63 | 1.81 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 1.79 | 3.52 | 4.13 | 1.83 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.33 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.80 | 3.78 | 4.52 | 1.82 | 2.03 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 1.71 | 3.75 | 4.75 | 1.86 | 1.93 | 1.77 | 1.93 | |
Betano | 1.80 | 3.90 | 4.75 | 1.85 | 2.02 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 1.80 | 3.75 | 4.40 | 1.83 | 1.97 | 1.76 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.40 | 1.74 | 1.94 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cruzeiro leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Cruzeiro and Botafogo, Cruzeiro has won 4 times, there have been 5 draws, and Botafogo has won 1 match. The scorelines reveal a largely competitive series, with several closely contested fixtures, including five matches ending in draws. Cruzeiro has had a slight edge, with three of their victories being by two or more goals, while Botafogo's solitary win was a dominant 4-0 result. Botafogo has not won against Cruzeiro since 2019, indicating a challenging historical context for them in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 22 | 48 | DWLWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 42 | WDDWW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 40 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 35 | DDDDD |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | WWLWD |
| 6 |  Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 33 | DDDDW |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 33 | 2 | 30 | DWDWL |
| 19 |  Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 22 | DLWLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 10 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCruzeiro have won 11 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Chapecoense-sc 2-0 and lost to Botafogo 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 13D 7L from the last 38 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Botafogo have won 8 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Cruzeiro 0-1 and lost to Bahia 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 10L from the last 35 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersCruzeiro6
Botafogo3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Lacerda has averaged 7.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Cruzeiro have averaged 6.6 corners per match at home; Botafogo 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cruzeiro have generated 1.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cruzeiro player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
