Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol
Match Preview
The model favours Vasco DA Gama to win this match against Mirassol, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Vasco currently sits in 17th place with 20 points from 18 matches, which reflects a season of struggle. Their goal difference of -7 indicates defensive issues, but they have managed to score 22 goals, showing they can find the net when needed. However, their recent form has been concerning, with just one win in their last five matches. On the other hand, Mirassol is positioned 19th with 16 points from 17 matches. Their record of 4 wins and 9 losses highlights their difficulties this season. They have a slightly better goal difference of -6, but with only 18 goals scored, their offensive struggles are evident. Mirassol has shown some resilience recently, winning two of their last five matches, but consistency remains a challenge for them. The model suggests a win probability of 55% for Vasco DA Gama, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is that Vasco has a 60% chance of scoring at least two goals in this match. However, if Vasco's recent form continues, they could face difficulties against a Mirassol side that is looking to build on their recent victories. For a comprehensive understanding of these predictions, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Vasco DA Gama manage games at home, conceding just 1.29 goals per match. Mirassol score 1.13 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Vasco DA Gama have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Vasco DA Gama clean sheets, in line with their 23% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Vasco DA Gama are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.99 | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.99 | 3.28 | 3.78 | 2.05 | 1.74 | 1.82 | 1.86 | |
| 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 2.06 | 3.38 | 3.95 | 2.11 | 1.78 | — | — | |
| 2.04 | 3.24 | 3.46 | 2.08 | 1.78 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.60 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.05 | 3.38 | 3.89 | 2.09 | 1.78 | 1.82 | 1.88 | |
| 2.06 | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.12 | 1.70 | 1.84 | 1.86 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 2.07 | 1.80 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
Superbet | 2.10 | 3.35 | 3.65 | 2.07 | 1.77 | 1.83 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 1.98 | 1.71 | 1.83 | 1.87 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Mirassol leads 3-0)In the last three encounters, Mirassol has won all three matches against Vasco DA Gama, with a record of 3 wins and 0 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive nature, with two matches decided by a single goal, including a close 3-2 victory for Mirassol. However, Vasco DA Gama has struggled to secure any victories, with their last win over Mirassol occurring before this recent stretch. This head-to-head record highlights Mirassol's dominance in their recent matchups.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 34 | WLDWD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 32 | DDLWD |
| 4 |  RB Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30 | DWWWL |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 30 | WWDLD |
| 6 |  Bahia | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 30 | DWWLD |
| 17 | Vasco DA Gama | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 20 | LLLLW |
| 18 | Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 19 | WLWLD |
| 19 |  Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 18 | WLWDW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 35 | -18 | 9 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVasco DA Gama have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Atletico-MG 0-1 and beat Barracas Central 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 11L from the last 31 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Mirassol have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Mirassol 1-0 and lost to Lanus 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 13L from the last 30 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVasco DA Gama
No reported absences
Mirassol
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Klein has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by R. Klein to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Vasco DA Gama have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Mirassol 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Vasco DA Gama have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 6.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Vasco DA Gama player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
