Bahia vs Corinthians Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bahia vs Corinthians
Match Preview
The model favours Bahia to win against Corinthians, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. As it stands, Bahia is currently positioned 6th in the Serie A table with 26 points from 17 matches, demonstrating a solid season thus far. Their goal difference of +2, with 25 goals scored and 23 conceded, reflects a competitive edge. Notably, they have secured two wins in their last five matches, indicating a resilience that could be pivotal in this fixture. On the other hand, Corinthians sits 10th with 24 points from 18 matches, showing a more inconsistent form with six wins, six draws, and six losses. Their goal difference is less favourable at -1, having scored 18 goals and conceded 19. While they have managed to pick up two wins in their last five matches, their overall performance suggests they may struggle against a more stable Bahia side. The model output gives Bahia a win probability of approximately 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. However, a potential caveat is Bahia's recent dip in form, which could open the door for Corinthians if they capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Bahia manage games at home, conceding just 1.50 goals per match. Corinthians score 1.09 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Bahia have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Bahia clean sheets, in line with their 15% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Bahia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bahia vs Corinthians| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.12 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.77 | 1.95 | |
| 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.97 | 1.81 | 1.74 | 1.95 | |
| 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 2.21 | 3.44 | 3.39 | 2.01 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 2.16 | 3.01 | 2.98 | 1.98 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.25 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.21 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 2.00 | 1.84 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
| 2.23 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 1.97 | 1.80 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
Betano | 2.20 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
Superbet | 2.20 | 3.35 | 3.40 | 1.97 | 1.83 | 1.76 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bahia leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Bahia and Corinthians, Bahia has won 4 times, there have been 3 draws, and Corinthians has also won 3 matches. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close contests; notably, five matches ended with a one-goal difference. Bahia's 5-1 victory in their most recent encounter stands out as a heavy win, contrasting with Corinthians’ 3-0 win in 2024. The frequency of draws, including two goalless matches, suggests that both teams have found it challenging to consistently dominate the other. The last time Corinthians won was in July 2024, indicating a potential shift in momentum favoring Bahia.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 34 | WLDWD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 32 | DDLWD |
| 4 |  RB Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30 | DWWWL |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 30 | WWDLD |
| 6 | Bahia | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 30 | DWWLD |
| 12 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 24 | WWLWL |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 19 | WLWLD |
| 19 |  Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 18 | WLWDW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 35 | -18 | 9 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBahia have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Bahia 4-1 and beat Bahia 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 9L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Corinthians have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Corinthians 1-1 and beat Gremio 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 10D 8L from the last 32 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBahia
No reported absences
Corinthians
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Abatti has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by R. Abatti to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Bahia have averaged 6.7 corners per match at home; Corinthians 5.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bahia have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bahia player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
