Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction, Tips & Odds
Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Match Preview
The model favours Guadalajara Chivas to win against U.N.A.M. - Pumas, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Chivas currently sit in second place in the league, having accrued 14 points from their first seven matches, with a solid record of four wins, two draws, and just one loss. Their goal difference of +6, with 12 goals scored and only 6 conceded, highlights their defensive solidity and attacking capability, making them a formidable opponent. In contrast, U.N.A.M. - Pumas are struggling in 12th place with only 8 points from six matches, featuring two wins, two draws, and two losses. Their goal tally stands at 8 goals scored against 8 conceded, indicating a lack of both defensive and offensive consistency. With no wins in their last five matches, where they have drawn three and lost two, their form suggests they may find it difficult to turn their fortunes around against a high-flying Chivas side. According to the model, Guadalajara Chivas have a 61.2% probability of winning this match, with a 22.3% chance of a draw and a 16.4% chance for U.N.A.M. - Pumas. One key market to consider is the likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 56.5%. However, the caveat is that if Chivas fail to convert their chances or if Pumas can somehow find their best form, an upset could be on the cards. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Guadalajara Chivas have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas win as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Guadalajara Chivas clean sheets, in line with their 42% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Guadalajara Chivas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.51 | 4.20 | 5.90 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.49 | 4.30 | 5.70 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.74 | 1.95 | |
| 1.47 | 4.33 | 6.00 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.80 | 2.05 | |
| 1.54 | 4.51 | 5.98 | 1.71 | 2.22 | — | — | |
| 1.45 | 3.84 | 5.13 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 3.90 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.70 | 1.95 | |
| 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.75 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.50 | 4.30 | 5.74 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
| 1.49 | 4.10 | 5.75 | 1.66 | 2.15 | 1.70 | 1.96 | |
| 1.44 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 1.62 | 2.10 | 1.75 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 1.55 | 4.50 | 6.30 | 1.70 | 2.20 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
Superbet | 1.44 | 4.55 | 6.60 | 1.70 | 2.17 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.75 | 1.64 | 2.09 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Guadalajara Chivas leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Guadalajara Chivas and U.N.A.M. - Pumas, Guadalajara Chivas has won 6 times, U.N.A.M. - Pumas has won 2 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a moderately strong advantage for Guadalajara Chivas, with several narrow victories, as evidenced by four matches decided by a single goal. However, there has also been a notable 3-0 win for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, demonstrating their capability to secure a heavy win. The draw frequency suggests that matches can be tightly contested, but overall, Guadalajara Chivas has been the more successful team in this fixture.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WWWLL |
| 5 |  Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | LWLWD |
| 10 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 | LWLDD |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWDLD |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGuadalajara Chivas have won 9 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Guadalajara Chivas 5-2 and lost to Guadalajara Chivas 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 7L from the last 33 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won 7 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Club Tijuana 2-0 and drew with Columbus Crew 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 10D 9L from the last 34 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGuadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Guadalajara Chivas have averaged 8.3 corners per match at home; U.N.A.M. - Pumas 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Guadalajara Chivas have generated 1.43 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 6.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Guadalajara Chivas player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
