Hapoel Beer Sheva vs FK Crvena Zvezda Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Match Preview
The model favours FK Crvena Zvezda to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Hapoel Beer Sheva. FK Crvena Zvezda has shown strong form recently, winning four of their last five matches. This consistency positions them well as they enter this crucial encounter in the UEFA Champions League qualifying round. Their ability to convert chances into goals has been a key factor, which is expected to play a significant role in this matchup. In contrast, Hapoel Beer Sheva has struggled recently, managing only one win in their last five matches. Their form indicates challenges in both defense and attack, with three losses contributing to a lack of momentum. This situation puts them at a disadvantage against a confident opponent like Crvena Zvezda, who is riding a wave of positive results. The model output suggests a win probability of around 60% for FK Crvena Zvezda, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat for this prediction is Hapoel Beer Sheva's potential to turn their form around at home, which can sometimes lead to unexpected performances. For a deeper understanding of how these predictions are derived, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results over the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
FK Crvena Zvezda have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FK Crvena Zvezda are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs FK Crvena Zvezda| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.10 | 3.85 | 1.63 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 4.90 | 3.92 | 1.63 | 1.68 | 2.14 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.62 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 5.07 | 4.12 | 1.60 | 1.68 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 4.09 | 3.44 | 1.68 | 1.73 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.65 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.62 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 5.04 | 4.04 | 1.68 | 1.71 | 2.18 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
| 4.60 | 3.85 | 1.63 | 1.68 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.02 | |
| 4.60 | 3.70 | 1.65 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
Superbet | 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.71 | 1.74 | 2.10 | 1.69 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 5.00 | 4.10 | 1.65 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Hapoel Beer Sheva and FK Crvena Zvezda stands at 0 wins for Hapoel Beer Sheva, 1 draw, and 0 wins for FK Crvena Zvezda. Their only encounter ended in a 0-0 stalemate, indicating a tightly contested match with no goals scored. This suggests a defensive approach from both sides, with neither team managing to assert dominance. Since they have faced each other only once, it is difficult to draw broader conclusions, but the lack of wins for either side points to a balanced matchup in their historical meeting.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonHapoel Beer Sheva have won 3 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 and beat Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 2D 5L from the last 14 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FK Crvena Zvezda have won 3 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 and beat Larne 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 4D 5L from the last 16 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHapoel Beer Sheva4-3-3Confirmed
FK Crvena Zvezda4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersHapoel Beer Sheva
No reported absences
FK Crvena Zvezda
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Manzano has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Manzano to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Hapoel Beer Sheva have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; FK Crvena Zvezda 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FK Crvena Zvezda have generated 3.88 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 6.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FK Crvena Zvezda player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
