Hull City vs Aston Villa Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hull City vs Aston Villa
Match Preview
The model favours Hull City to win against Aston Villa, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Hull City currently sits in 4th place after one match, boasting a perfect start with a win and a goal difference of +2. Their strong season form, highlighted by two wins in their last five matches, indicates a competitive edge early in the season. Aston Villa, on the other hand, has yet to play a match this season, currently holding 7th place with zero points. Their recent form, which includes only one win in their last five matches and four losses, raises concerns about their readiness and momentum as they enter the new campaign. According to the model, Hull City has a win probability of around 60%, while Aston Villa's chances sit at approximately 25%. A key market percentage to watch is Hull City's odds, which suggest confidence in their ability to secure the three points. However, the caveat is that Hull's early season success may not fully reflect their overall capability, and Aston Villa could surprise if they find their rhythm quickly. The full method used to reach this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team through an in-house model focused on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Hull City manage games at home, conceding just 1.13 goals per match. Aston Villa score 1.54 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
Hull City have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Hull City are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hull City vs Aston Villa| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 4.15 | 3.75 | 1.91 | 1.89 | 1.93 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
| 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 4.17 | 3.75 | 1.91 | 1.92 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 3.55 | 3.23 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 2.00 | — | — | |
| 3.90 | 3.50 | 1.85 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 4.10 | 3.60 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 4.22 | 3.81 | 1.94 | 1.95 | 1.99 | 1.74 | 2.00 | |
| 4.10 | 3.60 | 1.88 | 1.89 | 1.89 | 1.75 | 1.98 | |
Betano | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 4.10 | 3.65 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.95 | 1.77 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 4.10 | 3.60 | 1.87 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Aston Villa leads 3-1)In the last eight matches between Hull City and Aston Villa, Aston Villa has won three times, Hull City has won once, and there have been four draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with four matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow and more decisive victories. Hull City's lone win came in 2015 with a 2-0 scoreline, while Aston Villa's most significant win in this stretch was a 3-1 victory in 2014. The presence of low-scoring draws, such as the 0-0 results, suggests a tendency for closely contested matches.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Hull City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 5 |  Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | DDW |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | WDD |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 19 |  Fulham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHull City have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Aston Villa 0-0 and beat Manchester United 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 9L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aston Villa have won 8 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Aston Villa 0-0 and lost to Brighton 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 4D 16L from the last 35 games (43% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHull City5-4-1Confirmed
Aston Villa4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
14 playersHull City10
Aston Villa4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Oliver has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Hull City have averaged 2.5 corners per match at home; Aston Villa 2.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Hull City have generated 1.46 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Hull City player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
