Independiente vs Newells Old Boys Prediction, Tips & Odds
Independiente vs Newells Old Boys
Match Preview
The model favours Independiente to secure a win against Newells Old Boys, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Independiente currently sits in 5th place in the Liga Profesional Argentina, having accumulated 24 points from 16 matches. Their season has seen a balanced performance with 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses. They have scored 24 goals while conceding 20, reflecting a positive goal difference of 4. Recent form has been promising, with three wins in their last five matches, indicating a team in decent shape heading into this fixture. In contrast, Newells Old Boys find themselves in 14th position, with only 15 points from 16 matches. Their record shows 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, which highlights their struggles this season. They have managed to score just 15 goals while conceding 27, resulting in a negative goal difference of -12. Although Newells has shown some resilience lately with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, their overall performance still raises questions about their ability to compete against higher-ranked teams like Independiente. The model gives Independiente a strong win probability, bolstered by their superior league position and recent form. However, a potential caveat is that if Newells can maintain their recent unbeaten streak, they might pose a challenge. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Independiente have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches. Newells Old Boys average 0.8 goals per game.
Independiente manage games at home, conceding just 1.19 goals per match. Newells Old Boys score 0.84 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 19.7% probability.
Independiente have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Independiente win as the most likely scoreline at 19.7% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Independiente clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Independiente are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Independiente vs Newells Old Boys| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.62 | 3.55 | 5.90 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.15 | 1.62 | |
| 1.60 | 3.62 | 5.85 | 2.26 | 1.62 | 2.18 | 1.59 | |
| 1.60 | 3.70 | 5.50 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.65 | |
| 1.64 | 3.79 | 6.15 | 2.33 | 1.65 | — | — | |
| 1.66 | 3.28 | 4.94 | 2.38 | 1.58 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.40 | 5.50 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 1.62 | 3.60 | 6.25 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.63 | 3.68 | 5.95 | 2.28 | 1.63 | 2.18 | 1.61 | |
| 1.61 | 3.50 | 6.75 | 2.23 | 1.62 | 2.14 | 1.63 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.90 | 2.32 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.62 |
Superbet | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.75 | 2.30 | 1.63 | 2.22 | 1.61 |
BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.70 | 6.00 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Newells Old Boys leads 4-3)In their last ten encounters, Independiente has won 3 times, Newells Old Boys has won 4 times, and there have been 2 draws. The results indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches. Notably, five of the ten fixtures were decided by a single goal, highlighting the tight nature of many contests. The most recent match ended in a 1-1 draw, while Newells Old Boys' last victory over Independiente was a 2-0 win in July 2023. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects a balanced competition with no team establishing a clear dominance.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | DLDWD |
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LLWDW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | LLLWW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WLDDD |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 24 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | WDDWD |
| 14 |  Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 | LDDLD |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | LWDWL |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonIndependiente have won 5 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Independiente 3-1 and beat Independiente 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 5L from the last 21 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Newells Old Boys have won 2 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Velez Sarsfield 1-1 and beat Union Santa Fe 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 6D 9L from the last 19 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersIndependiente
No reported absences
Newells Old Boys
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
P. Echavarria has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by P. Echavarria to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Independiente have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Newells Old Boys 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Independiente have generated 1.12 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Independiente player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
