Ipswich vs Sunderland Prediction, Tips & Odds
Ipswich vs Sunderland
Match Preview
The model favours Ipswich to win against Sunderland, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Ipswich enters this match with a solid recent form, having won three of their last five matches. This performance places them in a promising position as they kick off their Premier League season, aiming to build on their momentum. Their ability to score goals has been evident, which could be a crucial factor in this matchup. On the other hand, Sunderland has also shown flashes of quality with a similar record of three wins in their last five matches. However, they will need to translate that form into the new season, as they start from a lower league position. The pressure is on to improve their standing, and they will be eager to secure points early on to avoid a repeat of the previous season's struggles. According to the model, Ipswich has a win probability of around 55%, while Sunderland sits at 25%, with the remaining 20% allocated to a draw. Despite Ipswich's advantages, one caveat is that the transition to the new season can often bring unpredictability, particularly for teams adjusting to new tactics or player changes. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Ipswich manage games at home, conceding just 1.19 goals per match. Sunderland score 1.35 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Ipswich have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Ipswich are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Ipswich vs Sunderland| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.62 | 3.25 | 2.62 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 2.80 | 3.24 | 2.73 | 2.16 | 1.71 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
| 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.70 | 2.15 | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.72 | 2.22 | 1.72 | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.09 | 2.68 | 2.20 | 1.71 | — | — | |
| 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.70 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.85 | 3.29 | 2.78 | 2.23 | 1.76 | 1.83 | 1.89 | |
| 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.63 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.79 | 1.94 | |
| 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.63 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 2.80 | 3.15 | 2.67 | 2.18 | 1.72 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
Superbet | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.70 | 2.15 | 1.71 | 1.85 | 1.92 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.63 | 2.05 | 1.66 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Ipswich and Sunderland stands at 4 wins for Ipswich, 4 wins for Sunderland, and 2 draws over the last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with both teams demonstrating the ability to secure victories. The scorelines suggest a mix of close contests and a few decisive wins, such as Ipswich's 5-2 victory in 2017 and 2-0 win in 2018. The most recent matches have been particularly competitive, with four of the last five encounters featuring a margin of just one goal. Notably, Sunderland last won against Ipswich in January 2021, indicating a shift in recent match outcomes.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 7 | Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Coventry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonIpswich have won 6 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Ipswich 3-0 and beat Ipswich 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 6L from the last 26 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sunderland have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sunderland 2-1 and beat Lens 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 3D 11L from the last 26 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedIpswich4-2-3-1Confirmed
Sunderland4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
4 playersIpswich2
Sunderland2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
F. Hallam has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by F. Hallam to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Ipswich average 1.7 goals per match at home; Sunderland 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Ipswich have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 50% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. Ipswich player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
