JDFS Alberts vs Smiltene Prediction, Tips & Odds
JDFS Alberts vs Smiltene
Match Preview
The model favours JDFS Alberts to win against Smiltene, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. JDFS Alberts currently sits in 5th position in the league, having secured 31 points from 17 matches. Their season has been marked by a strong attack, netting 35 goals while conceding only 24, resulting in a goal difference of +11. With three wins and two draws in their last five matches, they are in solid form and appear to be building momentum. In contrast, Smiltene finds themselves in 13th place with only 10 points from 16 games. Their season has been challenging, highlighted by just two wins and a concerning goal difference of -24, having scored only 19 goals while conceding 43. Their recent form has been poor, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, indicating ongoing difficulties in both attack and defense. According to the model, JDFS Alberts has a win probability of approximately 65%, with a projected score of 2-0. One key market indicator is their strong home performance. However, a potential caveat is that if Smiltene can find a way to improve their attacking threat, they could pose unexpected challenges. The full methodology behind this prediction, which utilizes expected goals and actual results across the season, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, courtesy of The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
JDFS Alberts have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 JDFS Alberts win as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature JDFS Alberts clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. JDFS Alberts are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
JDFS Alberts vs Smiltene| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.11 | 7.10 | 14.00 | 1.24 | 3.34 | 1.78 | 1.86 | |
| 1.15 | 6.50 | 10.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.14 | 6.81 | 9.89 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.15 | 6.00 | 13.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.91 | |
| 1.17 | 7.00 | 10.00 | 1.30 | 3.40 | — | — | |
| 1.11 | 7.10 | 14.00 | 1.24 | 3.34 | 1.78 | 1.89 | |
Betano | 1.20 | 6.00 | 9.00 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.20 | 6.10 | 8.30 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (JDFS Alberts leads 8-1)In the last 10 matches between JDFS Alberts and Smiltene, JDFS Alberts has won 8 times, with 1 draw and 1 win for Smiltene. The scorelines illustrate a dominant performance by JDFS Alberts, with several heavy victories including a 6-0 win and a 5-3 win. Smiltene's lone victory came in April 2023, indicating a long stretch of struggle against JDFS Alberts. The matches have generally been high-scoring, suggesting that while Smiltene has managed to score occasionally, they have often been outclassed in terms of overall performance.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 89 | 17 | 72 | 54 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 60 | 23 | 37 | 51 | LWDWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 49 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 50 | 23 | 27 | 47 | WLWWW |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 37 | LLWWW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 28 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Smiltene | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 16 | WWLLL |
| 12 |  Tukums II | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 15 | WLLLL |
| 13 |  JFK Ventspils | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 40 | -20 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 6 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonJDFS Alberts have won 10 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Valmiera / BSS 1-2 and beat Smiltene 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 8L from the last 32 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Smiltene have won 3 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to JDFS Alberts 3-2 and lost to Leevon / PPK 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 7D 20L from the last 32 games (16% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersJDFS Alberts
No reported absences
Smiltene
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
JDFS Alberts average 2.0 goals per match at home; Smiltene 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
JDFS Alberts have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 56% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. JDFS Alberts player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
