JDFS Alberts vs Valmiera / BSS Prediction, Tips & Odds
JDFS Alberts vs Valmiera / BSS
Match Preview
The model favours Valmiera / BSS to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against JDFS Alberts. Valmiera / BSS currently sits in second place in the league, boasting an impressive record of 14 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 loss from 17 matches. They have scored 48 goals while conceding only 15, resulting in a remarkable goal difference of +33. Their strong performance is underpinned by an unbeaten streak in their last five matches, where they have secured all 15 available points. On the other hand, JDFS Alberts is positioned fifth in the standings with a solid record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses from 18 matches. They have scored 37 goals and conceded 24, giving them a goal difference of +13. While Alberts has shown resilience with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, they face a significant challenge against a team that has been consistently dominant. The model gives Valmiera / BSS a win probability of around 65%, with the projected scoreline indicating a competitive match. A potential caveat for Valmiera / BSS is the possibility of complacency, as they may underestimate their opponent. The full method, which utilizes expected goals and actual results across the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Valmiera / BSS have been the stronger side, winning 69% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Valmiera / BSS are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
JDFS Alberts vs Valmiera / BSS| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.89 | 3.82 | 1.98 | 1.42 | 2.49 | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| 2.90 | 3.80 | 2.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.76 | 4.01 | 1.94 | 1.44 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.75 | 1.90 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 2.94 | 3.82 | 2.00 | 1.42 | 2.49 | 1.40 | 2.66 | |
Betano | 2.90 | 3.80 | 1.98 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Valmiera / BSS leads 5-0)In the last six encounters between JDFS Alberts and Valmiera / BSS, Valmiera / BSS has won five times, with one match ending in a draw. The scorelines reflect a dominant trend for Valmiera / BSS, as they have secured four victories by a margin of three goals or more, including a notable 6-1 win. JDFS Alberts has struggled to find success, with their last win against Valmiera / BSS dating back several years. The overall results indicate a clear advantage for Valmiera / BSS in this head-to-head matchup.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 89 | 17 | 72 | 54 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 60 | 23 | 37 | 51 | LWDWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 49 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 50 | 23 | 27 | 47 | WLWWW |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 37 | LLWWW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 28 | WLLWL |
| 12 |  Tukums II | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 15 | WLLLL |
| 13 |  JFK Ventspils | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 40 | -20 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 6 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonJDFS Alberts have won 10 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Valmiera / BSS 1-2 and beat Smiltene 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 8L from the last 32 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Valmiera / BSS have won 12 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Valmiera / BSS 1-2 and beat Rēzekne FA 1-6.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 3D 7L from the last 32 games (69% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersJDFS Alberts
No reported absences
Valmiera / BSS
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
JDFS Alberts average 2.0 goals per match at home; Valmiera / BSS 2.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Valmiera / BSS have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 69% of their matches and averaging 2.8 goals per game. Valmiera / BSS player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
