Juventus vs Lazio Prediction, Tips & Odds
Juventus vs Lazio
Match Preview
The model favours Juventus to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 7th in Serie A, Juventus has shown a mixed bag of form this season with three wins, one draw, and one loss from five matches. They have scored eight goals while conceding four, resulting in a goal difference of plus four. Key statistics indicate that while their attack is functional, they need to strengthen their consistency to climb higher in the standings. In contrast, Lazio sits in 3rd place, boasting an unbeaten record with four wins and one draw from five matches. They have scored eight goals and conceded only three, giving them a goal difference of plus five. Their recent form, featuring three wins and two draws in their last five outings, demonstrates their resilience and ability to secure results, making them a formidable opponent. The model output indicates a 57.1% probability of a Juventus victory, alongside a 24.7% chance for a draw and an 18.2% likelihood of a Lazio win. However, one caveat is that Juventus must improve their home performances, as inconsistent displays could hinder their chances. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, including the use of expected goals and actual results, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
Juventus have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Juventus win as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Juventus clean sheets, in line with their 53% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Juventus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Juventus vs Lazio| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.63 | 4.00 | 5.50 | 1.90 | 1.91 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.64 | 3.87 | 5.34 | 1.99 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 1.58 | 3.53 | 4.69 | 1.93 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.68 | 4.12 | 5.66 | 1.96 | 1.98 | 1.85 | 1.87 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 3.95 | 5.30 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Juventus and Lazio stands at 4 wins for each team, with 2 draws in their last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with neither side having a clear advantage. The scorelines suggest a mix of tight contests, as seen in the 2-2 and 1-1 draws, alongside narrow wins such as Juventus' 1-0 victories. Notably, Lazio's last win against Juventus came in April 2024, indicating that both teams have had periods of success against each other. Overall, the competition appears evenly matched with no significant lopsidedness in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | WLDWW |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonJuventus have won 9 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Cremonese 0-1 and beat Atalanta 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 8L from the last 32 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lazio have won 8 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Venezia 0-2 and beat Udinese 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 10D 8L from the last 35 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersJuventus
No reported absences
Lazio
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Juventus have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Lazio 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Juventus have generated 1.59 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Juventus player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
