Kalju Nomme vs Nõmme United Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kalju Nomme vs Nõmme United
Match Preview
The model favours Kalju Nomme to win this match against Nõmme United, with a projected scoreline of 3-1. Kalju Nomme currently sits in second place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 44 points from 24 matches. Their season has been strong overall, with 13 wins and a solid goal difference of +24, underscoring their effectiveness both offensively and defensively. Recent form highlights their competitiveness, as they have secured four wins in their last five matches, demonstrating their ability to perform under pressure. In contrast, Nõmme United finds themselves in eighth place, struggling with just 25 points from their 24 games. Their record includes only eight wins, and they have conceded 58 goals this season, resulting in a negative goal difference of -17. The team's recent form has been concerning, with just one win in their last five matches and four consecutive losses, indicating significant challenges in both attack and defense. The model indicates a strong win probability for Kalju Nomme, reflecting their superior standing and recent form. However, Nõmme United could pose a threat if they manage to find their rhythm, particularly if Kalju Nomme underestimates them. For further details on how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.7% probability.
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Kalju Nomme win as the most likely scoreline at 13.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Kalju Nomme clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Kalju Nomme are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kalju Nomme vs Nõmme United| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 1.42 | 2.70 | 1.53 | 2.25 | |
| 1.30 | 5.05 | 7.00 | 1.35 | 2.74 | 1.59 | 2.15 | |
| 1.30 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.34 | 5.25 | 7.24 | 1.39 | 2.87 | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.22 | 5.13 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.31 | 5.10 | 7.15 | 1.35 | 2.74 | 1.59 | 2.19 | |
| 1.40 | 4.70 | 5.75 | 1.33 | 2.90 | 1.48 | 2.38 | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.00 | 1.40 | 2.70 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 1.40 | 4.50 | 5.80 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.39 | 4.80 | 6.00 | 1.38 | 2.65 | 1.59 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 1.29 | 4.20 | 5.50 | 1.30 | 2.30 | 1.45 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Kalju Nomme leads 3-0)In the last five matches between Kalju Nomme and Nõmme United, Kalju Nomme has won three times, with two draws, while Nõmme United has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a significant advantage for Kalju Nomme, highlighted by a dominant 7-1 win and two additional victories by at least three goals. The matches have featured some tightly contested draws, with two games ending in 0-0 and 1-1. Nõmme United has not won in this fixture for an extended period, showing a clear trend of Kalju Nomme's superiority in their encounters.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 | Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKalju Nomme have won 7 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Kalju Nomme 2-3 and beat Kalju Nomme 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 9D 12L from the last 39 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Nõmme United have won 8 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Nõmme United 1-0 and lost to Paide 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 2D 18L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKalju Nomme
No reported absences
Nõmme United
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Kalju Nomme average 2.0 goals per match at home; Nõmme United 2.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 46% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. Kalju Nomme player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.