Kuressaare vs Tammeka Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kuressaare vs Tammeka
Match Preview
The model favours Tammeka to win against Kuressaare, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tammeka currently sits in fifth place in the Meistriliiga, having secured 38 points from 23 matches with a record of 12 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses. Their season has been marked by a solid offensive performance, scoring 29 goals while conceding 32, although their goal difference of -3 indicates some defensive vulnerabilities. Notably, Tammeka has been in exceptional form lately, winning their last five matches. In contrast, Kuressaare finds themselves in ninth place, having accumulated 25 points from 25 matches with a record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 14 losses. Their goal-scoring tally of 27 goals is accompanied by 41 goals conceded, resulting in a goal difference of -14. Despite their struggles this season, Kuressaare has shown signs of improvement recently, winning three of their last five matches, which could provide them with a boost heading into this fixture. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Tammeka, suggesting they are likely to take all three points. However, a potential caveat for Tammeka is their defensive record; if they are unable to tighten up at the back, Kuressaare could exploit any weaknesses. For further details on how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises an in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Tammeka have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Tammeka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kuressaare vs Tammeka| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.69 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 1.68 | 2.06 | 1.55 | 2.23 | |
| 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.77 | 3.38 | 2.38 | 1.71 | 2.09 | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.16 | 2.22 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.35 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.69 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 1.68 | 2.06 | 1.55 | 2.27 | |
| 2.88 | 3.45 | 2.18 | 1.61 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.25 | 1.65 | 1.98 | — | — |
BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 1.82 | 1.44 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Tammeka leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Kuressaare and Tammeka, Tammeka has won 5 times, Kuressaare has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, as evidenced by four games finishing with only a one-goal margin. Notably, the teams have played to two scoreless draws, suggesting a tendency for low-scoring outcomes. Tammeka's recent dominance is marked by their five victories, while Kuressaare last defeated Tammeka in April 2024, indicating a challenge for them in recent encounters.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 29 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 81 | 21 | 60 | 72 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 29 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 59 | 39 | 20 | 55 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Paide | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 51 | WWLWL |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 52 | 27 | 25 | 50 | WWLLL |
| 5 | Tammeka | 29 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 44 | LLWLW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 29 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 35 | DWLLW |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 29 | DLLWD |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 29 | 9 | 1 | 19 | 47 | 68 | -21 | 28 | LLWLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 29 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 65 | -43 | 19 | DLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKuressaare have won 8 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Saku Sporting 4-2 and lost to Tammeka 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 20L from the last 40 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Tammeka have won 9 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 6-0 and beat Kuressaare 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 3D 17L from the last 40 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKuressaare
No reported absences
Tammeka
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Laane has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by K. Laane to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Kuressaare average 1.5 goals per match at home; Tammeka 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Tammeka have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 50% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Tammeka player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.