Laagri vs Kuressaare Prediction, Tips & Odds
Laagri vs Kuressaare
Match Preview
The model favours Laagri to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Kuressaare. Laagri currently sits in sixth place in the Meistriliiga, having accumulated 31 points from 26 matches. Their season has been marked by a recent upturn in form, with three wins in their last five fixtures. While their goal difference stands at -7, they have managed to score 36 goals, which indicates their offensive capabilities, although they have been vulnerable defensively. Kuressaare, positioned ninth in the league, is just three points behind Laagri with 28 points from the same number of matches. Their recent form shows some struggle, having won only two of their last five matches. With a goal difference of -12 and 30 goals scored, their offensive output has been less effective compared to Laagri, which could be a significant factor in this matchup. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Laagri, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a caveat to consider is that Laagri's defensive weaknesses could allow Kuressaare to exploit gaps and secure a surprise result. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.4% probability.
Laagri have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Laagri are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Laagri vs Kuressaare| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.97 | 3.54 | 3.04 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.44 | 2.51 | |
| 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.00 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 2.06 | 3.68 | 3.13 | 1.50 | 2.48 | — | — | |
| 1.96 | 3.41 | 2.88 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.99 | 3.54 | 3.11 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.44 | 2.56 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 3.50 | 3.05 | 1.55 | 2.15 | — | — |
BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.25 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.06 | 1.33 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Laagri leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Laagri and Kuressaare, Laagri has won 4 times, there have been 4 draws, and Kuressaare has secured 2 victories. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in narrow margins, including three instances of 1-1 draws and a few outcomes decided by a single goal. Kuressaare's last win against Laagri came over four matches ago, suggesting a slight edge for Laagri in recent encounters, while the overall balance of wins and draws reflects a closely contested history.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 | Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLaagri have won 13 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Tammeka 0-2 and beat Kalju Nomme 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 4D 15L from the last 36 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kuressaare have won 4 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tammeka 1-0 and beat Kristiine JK 0-8.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 18L from the last 34 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLaagri
No reported absences
Kuressaare
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Jakobson has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Jakobson to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Laagri average 1.9 goals per match at home; Kuressaare 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Laagri have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 47% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Laagri player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.