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Lask Linz vs Ried Prediction, Tips & Odds

Lask Linz vs Ried

BundesligaRegular Season - 3
Lask Linz
#2 · Bundesliga
WWWWW
4 - 1
Raiffeisen Arena, Linz (19,080)
Referee: A. Sadikovski
Ried
#10 · Bundesliga
LLDWL
★ OUR PICK
Lask Linz to Win
Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over Ried make Lask Linz the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.53
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.45 (implied 69.0%) for Lask Linz to Win. Our experts calculate a 71.5% probability (an expert ratio of 1.40). We chose this bet because our experts rate it more likely than the bookmaker price implies (71.5% vs 69.0%), driven by Lask Linz's stronger form and superior underlying numbers. That edge makes it our most confident selection for this match.

Match Preview

The model favours Lask Linz to win against Ried, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lask Linz has shown a strong performance recently, with three wins in their last five matches. Their form indicates a competitive edge, particularly as they have managed to secure victories in crucial moments, despite experiencing a couple of losses. On the other hand, Ried's recent form reflects a mix of results, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency may pose challenges as they face a team that is currently performing better. Ried will need to find a way to stabilize their performance if they hope to compete effectively. The model output suggests a win probability leaning in favour of Lask Linz, although the exact figures are not provided. One key market insight indicates that Lask Linz is likely to dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities. However, a potential caveat for Lask Linz is their susceptibility to conceding goals, which could allow Ried to capitalize on any defensive lapses. For a detailed understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines their in-house model, which evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.

Betting Predictions

How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.

Match Result
Lask Linz Win66%1.45
Draw19%4.50
Ried Win16%6.16
BTTS
Both Teams to Score: Yes
1.7357.4%

Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.

Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
1.5961.2%

Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.

Correct Score
Lask Linz 2-0 Ried
7.3313.8%

The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.

Asian Handicap
Lask Linz -1.5
2.2546%

Lask Linz have been the stronger side, winning 66% of their matches.

CORRECT SCOREMost likely outcomes
2-0
7.33
13.8%
2-1
7.37
13.7%
1-0
7.63
13.2%
1-1
8.15
12.3%
3-0
9.96
10.2%
3-1
10.37
9.8%

Our model projects a 2-0 Lask Linz win as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Lask Linz clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.

ASIAN HANDICAPLines & prices
Lask Linz
-0.0
1.15
Ried
+0.0
4.96
Lask Linz
-0.5
1.44
Ried
+0.5
5.20
Lask Linz
-1.5
2.25
Ried
+1.5
12.00

Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Lask Linz are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.

Best Betting Odds

Lask Linz vs Ried
Bookmaker1X2O/U 2.5BTTS
1X2OverUnderYesNo
10Bet
1.444.506.501.602.301.702.00
Marathonbet
1.424.656.551.562.381.692.02
Betfair
1.444.506.501.532.451.672.15
Pinnacle
1.474.836.531.592.46
SBO
1.493.875.131.692.17
William Hill
1.444.406.001.752.00
Bet365
1.454.756.251.602.301.801.95
1xBet
1.444.606.401.572.351.702.04
Unibet
1.384.606.251.582.181.771.87
888Sport
1.444.406.001.532.301.752.00
Betano
1.474.456.101.602.301.722.00
Superbet
1.534.205.351.672.071.761.95
BetVictor
1.444.756.501.542.271.672.05

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
92.7%
Over 1.5 Goals
79.8%
Over 2.5 Goals
61.2%
Over 3.5 Goals
38.2%

Double Chance

Bet covers two outcomes
1XLask Linz or Draw
84%1.11
12Lask Linz or Ried
81%1.17
X2Draw or Ried
35%2.62

Head to Head

Last 10 Meetings (Ried leads 3-2)
2 Lask Linz5 Draw3 Ried
18 Mar
Ried
1-2
Lask Linz
Cup
14 Feb
Ried
1-1
Lask Linz
Bundesliga
Aug 25
Lask Linz
1-3
Ried
Bundesliga
Mar 25
Lask Linz
1-1
Ried
Friendlies Clubs
Feb 23
Ried
1-1
Lask Linz
Bundesliga
Sept 22
Lask Linz
1-1
Ried
Bundesliga
May 22
Ried
1-1
Lask Linz
Bundesliga
Apr 22
Lask Linz
0-2
Ried
Bundesliga
Dec 21
Lask Linz
1-0
Ried
Bundesliga
Aug 21
Ried
1-0
Lask Linz
Bundesliga

In the last 10 matches between Lask Linz and Ried, Lask Linz has won 2 times, Ried has won 3 times, and there have been 5 draws. This record indicates a relatively balanced rivalry, with a notable frequency of draws suggesting that many encounters have been closely contested. The scorelines reveal a mix of narrow victories and stalemates, with no team consistently dominating the other. Ried's last win was in December 2021, indicating that while they have had success historically, more recent meetings have leaned towards draws.

Bundesliga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Rapid Vienna
3300111109
WWW
2
Lask Linz
33009189
WWW
3
Red Bull Salzburg
32105147
WDW
4
Sturm Graz
32104137
WWD
5
Wolfsberger AC
31115324
LDW
6
Austria Lustenau
31114404
WLD
10
Ried
301237-41
LLD
11
WSG Wattens
301227-51
LLD
12
TSV Hartberg
300305-50
LLL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
Lask LinzHome
2W0D0L
2 playedGF 7 · GA 13.00 pts/game
RiedAway
0W1D1L
2 playedGF 2 · GA 50.50 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Lask LinzRied
2.53Goals p.g.1.45
1.16Goals conceded p.g.1.48
31%Clean sheets15%
66%Win rate36%
3.69Avg goals in match2.94
2.38xG per game0.88
0.06xGA per game-0.03
50%Possession %47%
6.3Shots on target / game4.0
6.7Corners per game2.7
Lask Linz
Recent Form

Lask Linz have won 12 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Ried 4-1 and beat Grazer AK 3-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 21W 5D 6L from the last 32 games (66% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Lask LinzAll competitions
14 Aug
Lask Linz
4-1
Ried
Bundesliga
09 Aug
Austria Vienna
0-2
Lask Linz
Bundesliga
31 Jul
Lask Linz
3-0
Grazer AK
Bundesliga
25 Jul
Kalsdorf
0-7
Lask Linz
Cup
18 Jul
Lask Linz
2-0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Friendlies Clubs
14 Jul
Lask Linz
1-2
Fenerbahçe
Friendlies Clubs
21
Win
66%
5
Draw
16%
6
Lost
19%
Ried
Recent Form

Ried have won 1 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Ried 4-1 and drew with Austria Lustenau 1-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 14L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: RiedAll competitions
14 Aug
Lask Linz
4-1
Ried
Bundesliga
09 Aug
Ried
1-2
Rapid Vienna
Bundesliga
02 Aug
Austria Lustenau
1-1
Ried
Bundesliga
24 Jul
Dornbirn
1-5
Ried
Cup
18 Jul
Mlada Boleslav
4-0
Ried
Friendlies Clubs
17 Jul
Ried
3-0
Rot-Weiß Essen
Friendlies Clubs
12
Win
36%
7
Draw
21%
14
Lost
42%

Lineups

Confirmed

Lask Linz4-4-2Confirmed

16Andrés AndradeDEF
6Melayro BogardeDEF
4Xavier MbuyambaDEF
43AlemãoDEF
7Samuel AdeniranFWD
8Moses UsorFWD
1Lukas JungwirthGK
30Sascha HorvathMID
2George BelloMID
20Kasper JørgensenMID
10Robert LjubičićMID
21Manoël VerhaegheDEF
25Yvan DibangoDEF
3Miguel FreckletonDEF
29Florian FleckerFWD
27Christoph LangFWD
33Tobias SchützenauerGK
45Nael KaneMID
18Alessandro SchöpfMID
9Krystof DaněkMID

Ried4-2-3-1Confirmed

5Dejan RadonjicDEF
7Oliver SorgDEF
30Oliver SteurerDEF
28Samuel Johansen ChukwudiDEF
9Niama Pape SissokoFWD
1Andreas LeitnerGK
22Stefan SchwabMID
6Yusuf MaartMID
47Evan EghosaMID
4Lukas MalicsekMID
12Ante BajićMID
25Dominik KirnbauerDEF
33Alessandro GoigingerDEF
15Joris BoguoFWD
21Tino KusanovićFWD
77Felix WimmerGK
10Jussef NasraweMID
8Martin RasnerMID
26Jonas MayerMID
19Tobias Lund JensenMID

Unavailable Players

0 players

Lask Linz

No reported absences

Ried

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.

High Probability
Lask Linz Win1.45 (65.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.59 (61.2%)
Both Teams Score1.73 (57.4%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.29 (38.8%)
BTTS No2.00 (42.6%)
Speculative
Draw4.50 (18.7%)
Ried Win6.16 (15.8%)

Yellow Card Prediction

A. Sadikovski has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.

Corner Prediction

Lask Linz have averaged 6.7 corners per match at home; Ried 2.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.

Player Stats Bet

Lask Linz have generated 2.38 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 66% of them. They put 6.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lask Linz player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.

What's Your Prediction?

Pick the result you expect

OUR PREDICTION
Lask Linz to Win

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.