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Lask Linz vs Ried Prediction, Tips & Odds

Lask Linz vs Ried

BundesligaRegular Season - 3
Lask Linz
#1 · Bundesliga
WWWWL
4 - 1
Raiffeisen Arena, Linz (19,080)
Referee: A. Sadikovski
Ried
#9 · Bundesliga
WLWLD
★ OUR PICK
Lask Linz to Win
Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over Ried make Lask Linz the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.53
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.45 (implied 69.0%) for Lask Linz to Win. Our experts calculate a 71.5% probability (an expert ratio of 1.40). We chose this bet because our experts rate it more likely than the bookmaker price implies (71.5% vs 69.0%), driven by Lask Linz's stronger form and superior underlying numbers. That edge makes it our most confident selection for this match.

Match Preview

The model favours Lask Linz to win against Ried, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lask Linz has shown a strong performance recently, with three wins in their last five matches. Their form indicates a competitive edge, particularly as they have managed to secure victories in crucial moments, despite experiencing a couple of losses. On the other hand, Ried's recent form reflects a mix of results, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency may pose challenges as they face a team that is currently performing better. Ried will need to find a way to stabilize their performance if they hope to compete effectively. The model output suggests a win probability leaning in favour of Lask Linz, although the exact figures are not provided. One key market insight indicates that Lask Linz is likely to dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities. However, a potential caveat for Lask Linz is their susceptibility to conceding goals, which could allow Ried to capitalize on any defensive lapses. For a detailed understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines their in-house model, which evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.

Betting Predictions

How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.

Match Result
Lask Linz Win63%1.45
Draw19%4.50
Ried Win18%6.16
BTTS
Both Teams to Score: Yes
1.7358.4%

Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.

Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
1.5962.2%

Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.

Correct Score
Lask Linz 2-0 Ried
7.3313.8%

The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.

Asian Handicap
Lask Linz -1.5
2.2543%

Lask Linz have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.

CORRECT SCOREMost likely outcomes
2-0
7.33
13.8%
2-1
7.37
13.7%
1-0
7.63
13.2%
1-1
8.15
12.3%
3-0
9.96
10.2%
3-1
10.37
9.8%

Our model projects a 2-0 Lask Linz win as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Lask Linz clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.

ASIAN HANDICAPLines & prices
Lask Linz
-0.0
1.15
Ried
+0.0
4.96
Lask Linz
-0.5
1.44
Ried
+0.5
5.20
Lask Linz
-1.5
2.25
Ried
+1.5
12.00

Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Lask Linz are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.

Best Betting Odds

Lask Linz vs Ried
Bookmaker1X2O/U 2.5BTTS
1X2OverUnderYesNo
10Bet
1.444.506.501.602.301.702.00
Marathonbet
1.424.656.551.562.381.692.02
Betfair
1.444.506.501.532.451.672.15
Pinnacle
1.474.836.531.592.46
SBO
1.493.875.131.692.17
William Hill
1.444.406.001.752.00
Bet365
1.454.756.251.602.301.801.95
1xBet
1.444.606.401.572.351.702.04
Unibet
1.384.606.251.582.181.771.87
888Sport
1.444.406.001.532.301.752.00
Betano
1.474.456.101.602.301.722.00
Superbet
1.534.205.351.672.071.761.95
BetVictor
1.444.756.501.542.271.672.05

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
92.7%
Over 1.5 Goals
79.8%
Over 2.5 Goals
62.2%
Over 3.5 Goals
38.2%

Double Chance

Bet covers two outcomes
1XLask Linz or Draw
82%1.11
12Lask Linz or Ried
81%1.17
X2Draw or Ried
37%2.62

Head to Head

Last 10 Meetings (Ried leads 3-2)
2 Lask Linz5 Draw3 Ried
18 Mar
Ried
1-2
Lask Linz
Cup
14 Feb
Ried
1-1
Lask Linz
Bundesliga
Aug 25
Lask Linz
1-3
Ried
Bundesliga
Mar 25
Lask Linz
1-1
Ried
Friendlies Clubs
Feb 23
Ried
1-1
Lask Linz
Bundesliga
Sept 22
Lask Linz
1-1
Ried
Bundesliga
May 22
Ried
1-1
Lask Linz
Bundesliga
Apr 22
Lask Linz
0-2
Ried
Bundesliga
Dec 21
Lask Linz
1-0
Ried
Bundesliga
Aug 21
Ried
1-0
Lask Linz
Bundesliga

In the last 10 matches between Lask Linz and Ried, Lask Linz has won 2 times, Ried has won 3 times, and there have been 5 draws. This record indicates a relatively balanced rivalry, with a notable frequency of draws suggesting that many encounters have been closely contested. The scorelines reveal a mix of narrow victories and stalemates, with no team consistently dominating the other. Ried's last win was in December 2021, indicating that while they have had success historically, more recent meetings have leaned towards draws.

Bundesliga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Lask Linz
55001521315
WWWWW
2
Red Bull Salzburg
54101431113
WWWDW
3
Rapid Vienna
5401157812
LWWWW
4
Sturm Graz
52216518
LDWWD
5
WSG Wattens
52127707
WWLLD
6
TSV Hartberg
520358-36
WWLLL
9
Ried
5113610-44
LWLLD
10
Grazer AK
5113213-114
DLLWL
11
SCR Altach
510448-43
LLLWL
12
Austria Vienna
5104310-73
LLWLL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
Lask LinzHome
3W0D0L
3 playedGF 10 · GA 13.00 pts/game
RiedAway
0W1D2L
3 playedGF 4 · GA 80.33 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Lask LinzRied
2.67Goals p.g.1.57
1.19Goals conceded p.g.1.46
28%Clean sheets17%
67%Win rate40%
3.86Avg goals in match3.03
2.27xG per game0.67
0.07xGA per game-0.38
48%Possession %48%
7.4Shots on target / game1.5
5.8Corners per game2.5
Lask Linz
Recent Form

Lask Linz have won 14 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lask Linz 3-0 and beat Lask Linz 5-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 24W 5D 7L from the last 36 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Lask LinzAll competitions
05 Sept
Deutschlandsberger SC
1-6
Lask Linz
Cup
01 Sept
Wolfsberger AC
1-3
Lask Linz
Bundesliga
29 Aug
Lask Linz
3-0
SCR Altach
Bundesliga
25 Aug
Lask Linz
5-1
Celtic
UEFA Champions League
19 Aug
Celtic
3-0
Lask Linz
UEFA Champions League
14 Aug
Lask Linz
4-1
Ried
Bundesliga
24
Win
67%
5
Draw
14%
7
Lost
19%
Ried
Recent Form

Ried have won 2 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include beat Ried 1-5 and lost to TSV Hartberg 3-2.

Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 14L from the last 35 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: RiedAll competitions
04 Sept
Wallern / Marienkirchen
1-5
Ried
Cup
30 Aug
TSV Hartberg
3-2
Ried
Bundesliga
21 Aug
Ried
1-0
Grazer AK
Bundesliga
14 Aug
Lask Linz
4-1
Ried
Bundesliga
02 Aug
Austria Lustenau
1-1
Ried
Bundesliga
24 Jul
Dornbirn
1-5
Ried
Cup
14
Win
40%
7
Draw
20%
14
Lost
40%

Lineups

Confirmed

Lask Linz4-4-2Confirmed

16Andrés AndradeDEF
6Melayro BogardeDEF
4Xavier MbuyambaDEF
43AlemãoDEF
7Samuel AdeniranFWD
8Moses UsorFWD
1Lukas JungwirthGK
30Sascha HorvathMID
2George BelloMID
20Kasper JørgensenMID
10Robert LjubičićMID
21Manoël VerhaegheDEF
25Yvan DibangoDEF
3Miguel FreckletonDEF
29Florian FleckerFWD
27Christoph LangFWD
33Tobias SchützenauerGK
45Nael KaneMID
18Alessandro SchöpfMID
9Krystof DaněkMID

Ried4-2-3-1Confirmed

5Dejan RadonjicDEF
7Oliver SorgDEF
30Oliver SteurerDEF
28Samuel Johansen ChukwudiDEF
9Niama Pape SissokoFWD
1Andreas LeitnerGK
22Stefan SchwabMID
6Yusuf MaartMID
47Evan EghosaMID
4Lukas MalicsekMID
12Ante BajićMID
25Dominik KirnbauerDEF
33Alessandro GoigingerDEF
15Joris BoguoFWD
21Tino KusanovićFWD
77Felix WimmerGK
10Jussef NasraweMID
8Martin RasnerMID
26Jonas MayerMID
19Tobias Lund JensenMID

Unavailable Players

0 players

Lask Linz

No reported absences

Ried

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.

High Probability
Lask Linz Win1.45 (63%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.59 (62.2%)
Both Teams Score1.73 (58.4%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.29 (37.8%)
BTTS No2.00 (41.6%)
Speculative
Draw4.50 (18.6%)
Ried Win6.16 (18.4%)

Yellow Card Prediction

A. Sadikovski has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.

Corner Prediction

Lask Linz have averaged 5.8 corners per match at home; Ried 2.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.

Player Stats Bet

Lask Linz have generated 2.27 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 7.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lask Linz player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.

What's Your Prediction?

Pick the result you expect

OUR PREDICTION
Lask Linz to Win

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.