Leeds vs Newcastle Prediction, Tips & Odds
Leeds vs Newcastle
Match Preview
The model favours Leeds to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 9th in the Premier League, Leeds has shown a solid start to the season with one win and two draws from their opening three matches. They have managed to score three goals while conceding only two, indicating a balanced approach. Their recent form is particularly encouraging, having gone unbeaten in their last five matches, with three wins and two draws. Newcastle, sitting just above Leeds in 7th place, shares a similar record with one win and two draws from three games. They have scored six goals but have also conceded four, suggesting a more open style of play. Their form has been steady, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches. However, they may need to tighten their defence to secure crucial points moving forward. According to the model, Leeds has a win probability of 37.9%, while Newcastle sits at 34.9%. The projected score reflects a competitive match, with a likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 54.5% and both teams to score at 58.0%. One caveat for Leeds is that while they have been solid defensively, a lapse in concentration could open the door for Newcastle's attacking threats. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Leeds have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Leeds are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Leeds vs Newcastle| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.44 | 3.45 | 2.70 | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 2.32 | 3.52 | 3.16 | 1.77 | 2.07 | 1.59 | 2.21 | |
| 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 2.30 | 3.51 | 3.25 | 1.79 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 2.32 | 3.10 | 2.64 | 1.78 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.36 | 3.58 | 3.21 | 1.83 | 2.14 | 1.59 | 2.24 | |
| 2.38 | 3.45 | 2.95 | 1.83 | 1.97 | 1.63 | 2.17 | |
| 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.80 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.80 | 2.07 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.70 | 2.00 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Newcastle leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Leeds and Newcastle, Leeds has won 2 times, with 5 draws and Newcastle winning 3 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches; notably, four encounters ended in draws, including two 0-0 results. Leeds achieved a significant 5-2 victory in December 2020, while Newcastle's victories have generally been narrow, with only one match decided by more than a single goal. Leeds last defeated Newcastle in January 2021, highlighting that recent results have favored Newcastle slightly, though the match outcomes have often been tight.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Hull City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 5 |  Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | DDW |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | WDD |
| 7 | Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | DWD |
| 9 | Leeds | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | DDW |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 19 |  Fulham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLeeds have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Leeds 1-1 and beat Leeds 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 12D 6L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Newcastle have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Tottenham 0-2 and beat Valencia 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 13L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLeeds3-5-2Confirmed
Newcastle4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersLeeds
No reported absences
Newcastle
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Leeds have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Newcastle 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Leeds have generated 1.79 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Leeds player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
