Liverpool vs Fulham Prediction, Tips & Odds
Liverpool vs Fulham
Match Preview
The model favours Liverpool to win against Fulham with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Despite their current position in the standings, Liverpool has shown resilience, managing to secure two draws in their opening matches. Their goal difference stands at zero, with four goals scored and four conceded, indicating a balanced offensive and defensive performance. Liverpool's ability to create chances has been evident, and they will look to convert those opportunities into wins. Fulham, on the other hand, has had a rocky start to the season, sitting in 14th place after one match with a loss. They have conceded three goals while only managing to score two, which highlights their struggles defensively. Although their recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, they will need to tighten their backline to compete effectively against a team like Liverpool. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 65% for Liverpool. While they appear to be the stronger side, a potential drawback could be their inability to secure victories in their last few matches, which may impact their confidence. For a deeper dive into our predictions, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Liverpool have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Liverpool win as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Liverpool clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Liverpool are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Liverpool vs Fulham| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.56 | 4.75 | 5.55 | 1.43 | 2.66 | 1.53 | 2.33 | |
| 1.50 | 4.60 | 6.00 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.53 | 2.50 | |
| 1.54 | 4.62 | 5.92 | 1.46 | 2.79 | — | — | |
| 1.48 | 4.40 | 5.13 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.50 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.58 | 4.82 | 5.64 | 1.43 | 2.66 | 1.53 | 2.36 | |
Betano | 1.57 | 4.65 | 5.70 | 1.47 | 2.77 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.75 | 1.43 | 2.56 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Liverpool leads 5-1)The head-to-head record between Liverpool and Fulham over the last 10 matches shows Liverpool winning 5 times, with 4 draws and Fulham winning just once. The scorelines indicate a competitive dynamic, with several tight matches, including four draws and a notable 4-3 victory for Liverpool. Fulham's only win came in a narrow 3-2 contest, highlighting that while Liverpool has had the upper hand, the results have often been closely contested. The most recent match in April 2026 ended with a 2-0 win for Liverpool, suggesting they have been consistent in their performances against Fulham.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 3 |  Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 10 | WWDLW |
| 4 |  Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 9 | WDDDW |
| 5 |  Leeds | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | DWDDW |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 9 | WDWDD |
| 18 |  Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 | LDDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLiverpool have won 11 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Liverpool 3-1 and drew with Liverpool 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 11L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fulham have won 4 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat West Ham 2-3 and drew with Liverpool 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 13L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLiverpool4-2-3-1Confirmed
Fulham4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
6 playersLiverpool5
Fulham1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Liverpool average 1.9 goals per match at home; Fulham 1.1 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Liverpool have generated 2.98 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 7.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Liverpool player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
