Liverpool vs Villarreal Prediction, Tips & Odds
Liverpool vs Villarreal
Match Preview
The model favours Liverpool to secure a victory against Villarreal, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Liverpool's recent form indicates a challenging period, with just one win in their last five matches (1W 2D 2L). Despite this, they remain a formidable opponent at Anfield, where their home advantage can often sway matches in their favour. Their attacking potential, bolstered by a strong squad, means they can create chances even when they are not at their best. On the other hand, Villarreal enters this match with a more positive outlook, having accumulated two wins and two draws in their last five matches (2W 2D 1L). This form suggests they can be competitive, especially if they can leverage their disciplined defensive structure and capitalize on any Liverpool mistakes. However, they will need to perform at their peak to challenge Liverpool effectively on their home ground. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Liverpool, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is Liverpool's likelihood of scoring over 1.5 goals, which stands at a solid 70%. A potential caveat for this prediction is Liverpool's recent inconsistency, which could be exploited by Villarreal if they can remain resilient and take their chances. More details on the methodology can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.7% probability.
Liverpool have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Liverpool win as the most likely scoreline at 12.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Liverpool clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Liverpool are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Liverpool vs Villarreal| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.53 | 4.60 | 5.80 | 1.50 | 2.38 | 1.62 | 2.16 | |
| 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.00 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.50 | 4.56 | 5.84 | 1.49 | 2.57 | — | — | |
| 1.41 | 4.24 | 5.42 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.50 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.00 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.57 | 4.72 | 5.96 | 1.50 | 2.38 | 1.62 | 2.19 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.50 | 6.10 | 1.55 | 2.55 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.75 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Liverpool leads 3-1)In the last four matches between Liverpool and Villarreal, Liverpool has won 3 times while Villarreal has secured 1 victory, resulting in no draws. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive series, with Liverpool winning by narrow margins in two matches, including a close 3-2 victory in May 2022. However, Liverpool also achieved a decisive 3-0 win in a prior encounter. Villarreal's lone win came in 2016, suggesting a struggle to maintain consistency against Liverpool in recent fixtures. Overall, Liverpool has had the upper hand historically in this matchup.
UEFA Champions League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 34 |  Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 35 |  Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | L |
| 36 |  Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLiverpool have won 11 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Manchester City 0-3 and beat Tottenham 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 6D 12L from the last 35 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Villarreal have won 6 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Villarreal 1-0 and beat Malaga 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 14L from the last 36 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLiverpool
No reported absences
Villarreal
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Liverpool have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Villarreal 7.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Liverpool have generated 2.31 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 49% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Liverpool player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
