Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction, Tips & Odds
Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt
Match Preview
The model favours Napoli to win the match against Bodo/Glimt, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Napoli enters this fixture in strong form, having won four out of their last five matches, with only a single draw to their name. This consistent performance highlights their attacking prowess and defensive stability, crucial factors as they aim to secure a vital win in the Champions League group stage. On the other hand, Bodo/Glimt has also been impressive, boasting a perfect record with five consecutive wins. Their ability to maintain such momentum will be tested against a more established side like Napoli. While their recent form is commendable, the quality of opposition in the Champions League is a significant step up, which may present challenges for them. According to the model, Napoli has a win probability of around 65%, with the projected score being 2-1. A key market percentage to note is that Napoli is favoured to cover the spread comfortably. However, one caveat is that an early goal for Bodo/Glimt could shift momentum and put pressure on Napoli's defence. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season to generate these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Napoli have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Napoli win as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Napoli clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Napoli are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.60 | 4.55 | 5.05 | 1.45 | 2.51 | 1.53 | 2.34 | |
| 1.57 | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.58 | 4.51 | 4.95 | 1.46 | 2.65 | — | — | |
| 1.52 | 4.01 | 4.59 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.75 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.25 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.64 | 4.67 | 5.18 | 1.45 | 2.51 | 1.53 | 2.37 | |
Betano | 1.60 | 4.40 | 5.00 | 1.52 | 2.62 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.40 | 5.00 | 1.46 | 2.47 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
UEFA Champions League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 34 |  Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 35 |  Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | L |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNapoli have won 11 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Napoli 3-0 and beat Napoli 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 10L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bodo/Glimt have won 15 of their last 23 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Rana 2-6 and lost to Brann 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 34W 5D 6L from the last 45 games (76% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNapoli
No reported absences
Bodo/Glimt
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Napoli have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Bodo/Glimt 6.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Napoli have generated 1.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Napoli player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
