Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction, Tips & Odds
Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Match Preview
The model favours Ludogorets to win this match against Hapoel Tel Aviv, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Ludogorets has shown strong form recently, going unbeaten in their last five matches with three wins and two draws. This consistency suggests they are performing well as they head into this crucial fixture. On the other hand, Hapoel Tel Aviv also comes in with an unbeaten streak in their last five matches, recording two wins and three draws. While their form is respectable, they have struggled to convert draws into wins, which could be a concern in a knockout scenario. The model indicates a strong likelihood of a Ludogorets victory, but it is important to consider that football can be unpredictable. Hapoel Tel Aviv could leverage their defensive resilience to secure a draw or even pull off an upset. For a complete understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results over the season to inform these predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Ludogorets manage games at home, conceding just 0.87 goals per match. Hapoel Tel Aviv score 1.33 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Ludogorets have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Ludogorets clean sheets, in line with their 53% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Ludogorets are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Ludogorets vs Hapoel Tel Aviv| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.69 | 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.77 | 1.85 | |
| 1.74 | 3.80 | 4.15 | 1.81 | 1.95 | 1.74 | 1.95 | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.98 | 1.85 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.22 | 3.88 | 1.90 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 1.80 | 3.94 | 4.30 | 1.85 | 1.99 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
| 1.81 | 3.55 | 4.00 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 3.75 | 4.45 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
Superbet | 1.77 | 3.75 | 4.15 | 1.82 | 1.88 | 1.78 | 1.92 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.50 | 1.81 | 1.86 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)In their only historical meeting, Ludogorets and Hapoel Tel Aviv played to a 0-0 draw. This match indicates a tightly contested fixture, as neither team was able to find the back of the net. With only one match in their head-to-head record, it's difficult to draw broader conclusions, but this encounter suggests a balanced matchup with potential for low-scoring outcomes. Neither side has a win against the other, highlighting the evenly matched nature of these teams in their past meeting.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonLudogorets have won 5 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Ludogorets 1-0 and beat Ludogorets 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 4D 4L from the last 15 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Hapoel Tel Aviv have won 2 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Hapoel Tel Aviv 2-2 and drew with Beitar Jerusalem 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 6D 4L from the last 15 games (33% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLudogorets4-3-3Confirmed
Hapoel Tel Aviv4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersLudogorets
No reported absences
Hapoel Tel Aviv
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Karabaev has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by S. Karabaev to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Ludogorets average 1.2 goals per match at home; Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Ludogorets have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 47% of their matches and averaging 1.2 goals per game. Ludogorets player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
