Lyon vs Nice Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lyon vs Nice
Match Preview
The model favours Lyon to win against Nice, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Lyon currently sits in second place in Ligue 1, having started the season strongly with three wins and two draws from their first five matches. They have scored 10 goals while conceding only 2, resulting in a goal difference of +8. This defensive solidity, combined with their attacking prowess, makes them a formidable opponent at this stage of the season. On the other hand, Nice finds themselves in 14th place, struggling with just one win, two draws, and two losses in their opening five matches. They have scored only 3 goals and conceded 6, leading to a goal difference of -3. Their recent form has not been encouraging, with only one victory in the last five matches, which highlights their difficulties in both attack and defense. The model gives Lyon a 57.1% win probability, while Nice's chances of winning stand at 19.1%. Additionally, there is a 56.8% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. One potential caveat is that if Lyon's defense becomes complacent, they could allow Nice to capitalize on any mistakes. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis comes from an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Lyon have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Lyon clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Lyon are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lyon vs Nice| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.67 | 4.10 | 5.05 | 1.67 | 2.24 | 1.65 | 2.11 | |
| 1.67 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.69 | 4.22 | 4.81 | 1.67 | 2.30 | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 3.57 | 4.15 | 1.64 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.75 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.75 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.71 | 4.20 | 5.18 | 1.72 | 2.31 | 1.65 | 2.13 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 3.95 | 5.00 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.60 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lyon leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Lyon and Nice, Lyon has won 5 times, Nice has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with Lyon securing four wins by at least two goals, suggesting they have had some dominant performances. Conversely, Nice's victories include a narrow 3-2 win and a 3-1 win, indicating they can also compete effectively. The presence of two draws shows that matches can be closely contested. The last time Nice won against Lyon was in June 2023, highlighting a recent competitive history between the two sides.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 14 | DWDWW |
| 2 |  Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WLWWD |
| 3 |  Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 13 | WLWWW |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11 | LWDWD |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WWWLD |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 8 | WWLDL |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LLLLW |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 | LLDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLyon have won 13 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lyon 4-0 and beat Lyon 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 7D 11L from the last 37 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Nice have won 4 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Paris FC 3-0 and drew with Hull City 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 14D 10L from the last 32 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLyon
No reported absences
Nice
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Francois Letexier has averaged 7.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Lyon have averaged 7.2 corners per match at home; Nice 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lyon have generated 1.63 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lyon player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
