Mārupe vs Tukums II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Mārupe vs Tukums II
Match Preview
The model favours Mārupe to win this match against Tukums II, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Mārupe currently sits in sixth place in the league standings, having accumulated 25 points from 19 matches. Their season has been marked by a challenging form, with just one win in their last five matches. Despite this, they have scored a total of 29 goals this season, which indicates a decent attacking capability, even if their goal difference is slightly negative at -3. On the other hand, Tukums II is struggling at the bottom of the table in 11th place, with only 12 points from 16 matches. Their season has been difficult, highlighted by a goal difference of -24, having conceded 45 goals so far. With three wins and ten losses, Tukums II has not shown the consistency needed to climb the standings. Their recent form has not improved much, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. According to the model, Mārupe has a win probability of approximately 60%, while Tukums II's chances stand at around 20%. One key market to watch is Mārupe's potential to win by a margin of one goal. However, if Tukums II manages to tighten their defense, it could lead to an unexpected result. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, the full methodology is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Mārupe have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Mārupe win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Mārupe are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Mārupe vs Tukums II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.65 | 4.05 | 3.86 | 1.28 | 3.08 | 1.32 | 2.92 | |
| 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 4.04 | 3.59 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.66 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.28 | 3.05 | 1.33 | 2.95 | |
Betano | 1.70 | 4.05 | 3.65 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Mārupe leads 4-0)In the last four matches between Mārupe and Tukums II, Mārupe has won all four encounters, while Tukums II has not secured a single victory. The scorelines indicate a slightly competitive nature, with three of the four matches ending with a one-goal margin; however, Mārupe's consistent ability to win suggests a degree of dominance. There have been no draws in this series, which highlights Mārupe's strong hold over the fixture. Tukums II has not won against Mārupe in their last four meetings, indicating a challenging matchup for them historically.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 89 | 17 | 72 | 54 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 60 | 23 | 37 | 51 | LWDWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 49 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 50 | 23 | 27 | 47 | WLWWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 37 | LLWWW |
| 6 | Mārupe | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 28 | WLLWL |
| 12 | Tukums II | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 15 | WLLLL |
| 13 |  JFK Ventspils | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 40 | -20 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 6 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMārupe have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tukums II 5-0 and lost to JDFS Alberts 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 2D 18L from the last 33 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Tukums II have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tukums II 5-0 and lost to Skanste 6-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 4D 19L from the last 29 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMārupe
No reported absences
Tukums II
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Mārupe average 1.5 goals per match at home; Tukums II 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Mārupe have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 39% of their matches and averaging 1.5 goals per game. Mārupe player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
