Malta vs Andorra Prediction, Tips & Odds
Malta vs Andorra
Match Preview
Malta and Andorra meet in a knockout match of the UEFA Nations League, where both teams will be eager to secure their first competitive victory of the tournament. With the group stage yet to commence, the stakes are high, as a win ensures progress while a loss results in elimination. Recent competitive form suggests Malta has struggled, losing six of their last eight matches, with their only victory coming against Finland in a friendly. Andorra, on the other hand, has also faced difficulties, managing just one win in their last eight competitive outings, including a recent loss to Kosovo. Both teams will be looking to break their poor run of form in this crucial encounter. The absence of reported unavailable players for either side means both teams will have their full squad at their disposal, which could be pivotal in a knockout match where depth and fitness can play significant roles. However, the lack of recent competitive data makes it difficult to predict which team might have the upper hand. As bookmakers have not yet priced this fixture, no model probabilities are available. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has considered the aggregate data and tournament context to frame this matchup. The outcome remains uncertain, but both teams will be keen to capitalize on this opportunity to advance in the UEFA Nations League.
About the Teams
Malta
Profile data not available yet.
Andorra
Profile data not available yet.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Malta have kept a clean sheet in 23% of matches. Andorra average 0.5 goals per game.
Malta manage games at home, conceding just 1.69 goals per match. Andorra score 0.46 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 23.9% probability.
Malta have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Malta win as the most likely scoreline at 23.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Malta clean sheets, in line with their 23% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Malta are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Malta vs Andorra| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.55 | 3.25 | 6.50 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| 1.58 | 3.52 | 7.11 | 2.71 | 1.47 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.02 | 4.48 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.20 | 6.00 | — | — | 2.50 | 1.44 | |
| 1.57 | 3.25 | 7.50 | 2.62 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.40 | |
| 1.67 | 3.42 | 7.18 | 2.64 | 1.41 | 2.62 | 1.44 | |
Betano | 1.60 | 3.40 | 6.60 | 2.72 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.44 |
BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.40 | 7.00 | 2.56 | 1.43 | 2.70 | 1.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Malta leads 2-0)In their last four meetings, Malta has won 2 matches, drawn 2, and Andorra has not won any. All encounters have taken place in competitive fixtures, specifically within the UEFA Nations League, with the most recent match occurring in November 2024. This relatively recent sample indicates that Malta has shown a slight upper hand, with a total of two victories and two draws, suggesting a balanced but favorable record for Malta against Andorra in this context.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonMalta have won 2 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Gibraltar 1-1 and beat Liechtenstein 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 2D 6L from the last 13 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Andorra have won 0 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Andorra 3-0 and drew with Gibraltar 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 1W 4D 8L from the last 13 games (8% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMalta
No reported absences
Andorra
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Mikkel Redder has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Mikkel Redder to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Malta have averaged 2.4 corners per match at home; Andorra 2.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Malta have generated 1.17 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Malta player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.