Monterrey vs FC Juarez Prediction, Tips & Odds
Monterrey vs FC Juarez
Match Preview
The model favours Monterrey to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against FC Juarez. Monterrey currently sits in 3rd place in the Liga MX standings, having secured 6 points from their opening three matches. Their attack has been relatively strong, scoring 6 goals, while their defence has shown some vulnerability with 4 goals conceded, resulting in a goal difference of +2. Monterrey's recent form reflects their competitive edge, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. In contrast, FC Juarez is struggling at the bottom of the table in 18th place, having failed to register a point in their first three games. They have managed to score just 1 goal while conceding 7, leading to a goal difference of -6. Their recent form shows only one win in the last five matches, which further highlights their difficulties in both attack and defence. The model gives Monterrey a win probability of 59.8%, with a 22.4% chance of a draw and 17.8% for a FC Juarez victory. There is also a significant likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored at 59.9%. One caveat to consider is Monterrey's defensive lapses, which could allow Juarez to capitalize if they find form. The full methodology, based on expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
Monterrey have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Monterrey win as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Monterrey clean sheets, in line with their 19% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Monterrey are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Monterrey vs FC Juarez| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.52 | 4.40 | 5.40 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.55 | 4.25 | 5.05 | 1.45 | 2.41 | 1.54 | 2.28 | |
| 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 1.60 | 4.52 | 5.20 | 1.52 | 2.62 | — | — | |
| 1.51 | 4.11 | 4.94 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 3.90 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 1.60 | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.57 | 4.25 | 4.99 | 1.45 | 2.41 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
| 1.55 | 4.20 | 4.90 | 1.50 | 2.48 | 1.54 | 2.23 | |
| 1.53 | 3.90 | 4.60 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 1.62 | 4.45 | 5.50 | 1.55 | 2.55 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.49 | 2.40 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Monterrey leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Monterrey and FC Juarez, Monterrey has won 7 times, with 1 draw and FC Juarez winning once. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided rivalry, highlighted by Monterrey's ability to secure heavy wins, including a notable 4-2 and several 3-0 victories. While FC Juarez managed to win 2-1 in one instance, their last victory against Monterrey was in February 2025, suggesting a significant challenge for them in this matchup. Overall, the record reflects Monterrey's dominance in recent encounters.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Club Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | WDWW |
| 3 | Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 9 | WWLW |
| 4 |  Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | WLWW |
| 5 |  Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | DWLW |
| 6 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | DWWL |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 1 | LLDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | LLLL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMonterrey have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat FC Juarez 6-1 and beat Nashville SC 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 11L from the last 26 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FC Juarez have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Juarez 6-1 and lost to Real Salt Lake 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 13L from the last 28 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMonterrey
No reported absences
FC Juarez
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Monterrey have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; FC Juarez 2.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Monterrey have generated 1.48 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Monterrey player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
