Monza vs Cagliari Prediction, Tips & Odds
Monza vs Cagliari
Match Preview
The model favours Monza to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Monza currently sits in 16th place with just one win from their five matches this season, accumulating only four points. Their offensive output has been modest, with eight goals scored, while they have conceded twelve, leading to a goal difference of -4. Despite their struggles, Monza's recent form shows a slight improvement, having secured one win and two draws in their last five matches. Cagliari, on the other hand, is performing well this season, positioned 4th in the league with four wins from five matches and a total of twelve points. Their defensive record has been impressive, allowing only two goals all season, while their goal difference stands at +3. Although their recent form includes three wins followed by two losses, Cagliari has shown they can compete with the top teams, making them a formidable opponent. The model gives Monza a win probability of 43.5%, with a 29.4% chance of a draw and a 27.1% chance for Cagliari to win. One key market percentage indicates a 45.6% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. However, a potential pitfall for Monza could be their inconsistency, which might allow Cagliari to exploit any defensive lapses. The full methodology of our prediction, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.7% probability.
Monza have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Monza clean sheets, in line with their 22% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Monza are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Monza vs Cagliari| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.15 | 3.16 | 3.78 | 2.13 | 1.72 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 2.19 | 3.18 | 3.58 | 2.06 | 1.78 | — | — | |
| 2.06 | 3.07 | 3.15 | 2.14 | 1.73 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.22 | 3.26 | 3.90 | 2.20 | 1.78 | 1.85 | 1.87 | |
Betano | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.55 | 2.12 | 1.75 | 1.83 | 1.91 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Cagliari leads 2-1)In their last four encounters, Cagliari leads the head-to-head record with 2 wins, Monza has 1 win, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines suggest a mix of outcomes; Cagliari's victories included a decisive 3-0 win, while Monza's lone win was a narrow 1-0. The draw indicates that matches can be closely contested, yet Cagliari's two wins highlight their ability to secure results against Monza. Notably, Monza has not beaten Cagliari in their last two encounters, which may influence their confidence going forward.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMonza have won 4 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Monza 2-3 and beat Monza 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 4D 7L from the last 18 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Cagliari have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Cagliari 0-1 and beat Atalanta 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 11L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMonza
No reported absences
Cagliari
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Monza have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Cagliari 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Monza have generated 1.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Monza player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
