Moreirense vs Maritimo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Moreirense vs Maritimo
Match Preview
The model favours Maritimo to win this match against Moreirense, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Maritimo currently sits in 6th place in the Primeira Liga, having accumulated 7 points from four matches, with a record of two wins, one draw, and one loss. Their goal difference of +1, with 6 goals scored and 5 conceded, shows a balanced attack and defence, which has been crucial for their strong start to the season. On the other hand, Moreirense finds itself in 10th place with 4 points from three matches, recording one win, one draw, and one loss. They have struggled defensively, conceding 6 goals while scoring only 3, resulting in a goal difference of -3. Their recent form of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses indicates inconsistency, which could hinder their chances against a more settled Maritimo side. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Maritimo, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one potential caveat is Moreirense's ability to exploit home advantage, which could level the playing field. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 27% of matches. Maritimo average 1.1 goals per game.
Moreirense manage games at home, conceding just 1.35 goals per match. Maritimo score 1.07 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.7% probability.
Moreirense have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Moreirense are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Moreirense vs Maritimo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.78 | 3.15 | 2.56 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
| 2.71 | 3.10 | 2.63 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.80 | |
| 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 2.87 | 3.17 | 2.71 | 2.36 | 1.64 | — | — | |
| 2.24 | 2.90 | 2.78 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.60 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.60 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.82 | 3.22 | 2.73 | 2.32 | 1.67 | 1.88 | 1.82 | |
| 2.55 | 3.15 | 2.80 | 2.12 | 1.63 | 1.83 | 1.84 | |
| 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.88 | 2.25 | 1.60 | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 2.75 | 3.15 | 2.72 | 2.32 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 1.83 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.55 | 2.17 | 1.59 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Moreirense leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Moreirense and Maritimo stands at 4 wins for Moreirense, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Maritimo over the last 10 matches. This indicates a relatively balanced rivalry, with both teams having had success against each other. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests, with several matches ending in narrow margins, such as 1-0 and 2-1, and a notable frequency of draws, including three instances. The last time Maritimo won against Moreirense was in March 2022, suggesting a competitive edge for Moreirense in recent encounters.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 |  Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 10 | WWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | WLWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | LDWW |
| 8 | Maritimo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | LLDWW |
| 13 | Moreirense | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 | LWLD |
| 16 |  Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMoreirense have won 5 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Moreirense 2-0 and drew with Moreirense 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 12L from the last 26 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Maritimo have won 1 of their last 4 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Arouca 2-1 and lost to Penafiel 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 3D 7L from the last 14 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedMoreirense4-2-3-1Confirmed
Maritimo4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersMoreirense
No reported absences
Maritimo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Moreirense have averaged 2.6 corners per match at home; Maritimo 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Moreirense have generated 0.62 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 2.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Moreirense player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
