Nõmme United vs Paide Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nõmme United vs Paide
Match Preview
The model favours Paide to win this match against Nõmme United, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Paide currently sits in fourth place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 42 points from 25 matches. Their season has been relatively strong, with 12 wins and a solid goal difference of +7. Key to their success has been a solid defensive record, conceding only 33 goals, which highlights their ability to control games effectively. In contrast, Nõmme United finds themselves in eighth place, with a challenging season reflected in their record of 9 wins, 1 draw, and 17 losses. They have struggled defensively, allowing 62 goals, which contributes to their negative goal difference of -18. While they have shown some resilience with two wins in their last five matches, overall form has been inconsistent, making it difficult for them to climb the standings. The model gives Paide a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage suggests that Paide is favoured to win at around 55%. However, if Nõmme United can harness their home advantage and exploit any defensive lapses from Paide, they could potentially upset the prediction. The full methodology used for this prediction is available in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.8% probability.
Paide have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Paide win as the most likely scoreline at 11.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Paide are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nõmme United vs Paide| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.25 | 4.15 | 1.56 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.39 | 2.67 | |
| 4.60 | 4.40 | 1.53 | 1.30 | 3.20 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 4.37 | 4.44 | 1.64 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.62 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.45 | |
| 4.00 | 4.10 | 1.60 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 4.32 | 4.15 | 1.58 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.39 | 2.73 | |
Betano | 4.05 | 4.05 | 1.62 | — | — | — | — |
BetVictor | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 2.50 | 1.29 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Paide leads 6-0)In the last six matches between Nõmme United and Paide, Paide has won all six encounters, resulting in a record of 0 wins for Nõmme United and 6 wins for Paide. The scorelines indicate a clear dominance by Paide, with several heavy victories, including a 7-2 win and two 4-0 wins. Nõmme United has struggled to keep matches close, with only one match decided by a single goal (1-0). The absence of draws in this head-to-head record further underscores Paide's control, leaving Nõmme United without a win against them in recent history.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 | Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNõmme United have won 8 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 10. Their recent home fixtures include beat Nõmme United 3-2 and lost to Nõmme United 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 2D 18L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Paide have won 5 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Flora Tallinn 1-2 and lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 9D 12L from the last 41 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNõmme United
No reported absences
Paide
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Pukk has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Pukk to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Nõmme United average 2.4 goals per match at home; Paide 1.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Paide have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 49% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. They put 2.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Paide player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.