NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction, Tips & Odds
NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Match Preview
The model favours NEC Nijmegen to win against Olympiakos Piraeus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. NEC Nijmegen has shown a mixed form lately, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. Despite the inconsistency, their ability to secure victories indicates potential for improvement, especially in a crucial fixture like this. On the other hand, Olympiakos Piraeus is struggling, having only managed one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. This lack of form could weigh heavily on their confidence as they approach the match, making it difficult for them to compete effectively against NEC Nijmegen. The model output indicates a higher win probability for NEC Nijmegen, reflecting their recent ability to claim victories despite recent setbacks. However, a caveat to consider is that Olympiakos Piraeus may still pose a threat if they can find their rhythm and capitalize on any defensive lapses from NEC. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the methodology of our in-house model, which analyses expected goals and actual results, is outlined.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
NEC Nijmegen have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. NEC Nijmegen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.74 | 3.35 | 2.46 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.15 | |
| 2.70 | 3.34 | 2.49 | 1.81 | 1.97 | 1.62 | 2.14 | |
| 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.45 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.76 | 3.39 | 2.55 | 1.84 | 2.00 | — | — | |
| 2.59 | 3.14 | 2.34 | 1.82 | 2.02 | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.82 | 3.48 | 2.60 | 1.87 | 2.04 | 1.62 | 2.17 | |
| 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.45 | 1.84 | 1.88 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.50 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.55 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
Superbet | 2.77 | 3.35 | 2.55 | 1.83 | 1.97 | 1.64 | 2.17 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.50 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Olympiakos Piraeus leads 1-0)In the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Olympiakos Piraeus, Olympiakos has won 1 match, while NEC Nijmegen has yet to secure a victory, resulting in no draws. The only encounter took place in a friendly match, where Olympiakos won 2-0, indicating a clear edge in that fixture. This single match shows that Olympiakos has the upper hand, winning by a two-goal margin, which suggests a moderately one-sided contest. Since there is only one match in the record, it remains to be seen how these teams will perform in future encounters.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonNEC Nijmegen have won 9 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 and lost to Telstar 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 9L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to AZ Alkmaar 3-2 and lost to Antwerp 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 9D 7L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNEC Nijmegen3-4-2-1Confirmed
Olympiakos Piraeus4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersNEC Nijmegen
No reported absences
Olympiakos Piraeus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Mariani has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Mariani to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
NEC Nijmegen have averaged 7.9 corners per match at home; Olympiakos Piraeus 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
NEC Nijmegen have generated 2.07 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 6.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. NEC Nijmegen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
