Necaxa vs Puebla Prediction, Tips & Odds
Necaxa vs Puebla
Match Preview
The model favours Puebla to win this match against Necaxa, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Puebla currently sits in a solid sixth position in the Liga MX standings, having accumulated 10 points from their first five matches. Their season form is marked by three wins and a draw, with a goal difference of +2. The team's offensive capabilities have been evident, scoring nine goals while conceding seven, which highlights their ability to find the net while maintaining a competitive edge defensively. On the other hand, Necaxa is struggling in 12th place with only seven points from six matches. Their form has been inconsistent, with two wins, one draw, and three losses, resulting in a negative goal difference of -3. While they have managed to score eight goals, they have also conceded eleven, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by Puebla's attacking players. The model output suggests a win probability of approximately 55% for Puebla, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Puebla winning outright. However, a caveat to this prediction is Necaxa's potential to bounce back at home, which could complicate matters for Puebla. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Necaxa have been the stronger side, winning 29% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Necaxa are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Necaxa vs Puebla| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.97 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.69 | 2.11 | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.10 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.07 | 3.70 | 3.57 | 1.72 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 2.06 | 3.32 | 3.09 | 1.72 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.25 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.02 | 3.48 | 3.43 | 1.69 | 2.11 | 1.57 | 2.26 | |
| 1.94 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.68 | 2.12 | 1.55 | 2.20 | |
| 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 1.75 | 1.85 | 1.60 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
Superbet | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.45 | 1.82 | 2.00 | 1.69 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.65 | 2.07 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Necaxa leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Necaxa and Puebla, Necaxa has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Puebla has won 2 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches evidenced by four games ending in draws or by a single goal margin. Notably, there have been both narrow wins and a heavier defeat for Puebla, which lost 4-1 in one fixture. Puebla's last victory over Necaxa was in 2023, suggesting a recent competitive balance, but overall, Necaxa holds a slight edge in this head-to-head record.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 20 | DLWWW |
| 2 |  Club America | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 20 | WDLWW |
| 3 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  Club Queretaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 17 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Leon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 17 | WDWLD |
| 6 |  Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 | WDLDL |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 | LDLWL |
| 16 |  Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 | WWWLD |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNecaxa have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Club America 2-4 and lost to Puebla 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 17L from the last 34 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Puebla have won 5 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Puebla 1-0 and beat Necaxa 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 18L from the last 33 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNecaxa
No reported absences
Puebla
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Necaxa have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Puebla 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Necaxa have generated 1.29 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 29% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Necaxa player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
