New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC
Match Preview
The model favours Nashville SC to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Nashville currently sits at the top of the standings with 40 points from 18 matches, boasting an impressive record of 12 wins, 4 draws, and just 2 losses. Their goal difference of +21 is the best in the league, showcasing their strong defensive capabilities, having conceded only 14 goals this season. This solid foundation, combined with their recent form of three wins in their last four matches, positions them as clear favourites. On the other hand, the New York Red Bulls are in 8th place with 25 points, having won 7, drawn 4, and lost 7 of their 18 matches. Their goal difference of -10 indicates struggles at both ends of the pitch, with 29 goals scored and 39 conceded. Although they have managed to secure two wins in their last five outings, they face a tough challenge against a high-flying Nashville side that has demonstrated consistent form throughout the season. The model's output gives Nashville a 41.5% chance of winning, while New York's chances stand at 34.1%. The anticipated goals tally suggests a likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 63.0% and a strong 64.6% chance for both teams to score. However, New York could pose a surprise if they manage to leverage their home advantage effectively. For a detailed breakdown of our predictions, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results from the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.2% probability.
Nashville SC have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Nashville SC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.28 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
| 2.64 | 3.68 | 2.38 | 1.49 | 2.32 | 1.44 | 2.53 | |
| 2.70 | 3.75 | 2.40 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 2.74 | 3.82 | 2.46 | 1.57 | 2.51 | — | — | |
| 2.63 | 3.54 | 2.33 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.80 | 3.65 | 2.28 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
Betano | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.50 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
Superbet | 2.72 | 3.70 | 2.42 | 1.54 | 2.50 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.70 | 2.40 | 1.51 | 2.33 | 1.44 | 2.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York Red Bulls leads 5-1)The head-to-head record between New York Red Bulls and Nashville SC shows New York winning 5 times, Nashville winning once, and 4 matches ending in a draw. This record indicates a strong advantage for New York, particularly with 4 of the 5 wins being by a margin of at least one goal, suggesting they have often controlled the match. Notably, Nashville's solitary victory came in 2025, making it the only win in the last ten fixtures, while there have been several low-scoring encounters, including four 0-0 draws.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 15 | 24 | 43 | WDLWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 37 | WDDLW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 35 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 46 | 36 | 10 | 38 | LDWWW |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 34 | LDWWW |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 24 | 10 | 32 | WWLLW |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 25 | LWLLW |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 17 | DDLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 48 | -30 | 14 | LLLWL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 15 | WLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York Red Bulls have won 7 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Orlando City SC 3-2 and lost to Charlotte 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 13L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Nashville SC have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Monterrey 2-1 and drew with DC United 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 8D 7L from the last 33 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
4 playersNew York Red Bulls2
Nashville SC2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
L. Hernandez has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by L. Hernandez to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
New York Red Bulls have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Nashville SC 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Nashville SC have generated 1.25 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 3.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Nashville SC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
