New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
Match Preview
The model favours New York Red Bulls to win against Toronto FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 8th in the league, the Red Bulls have accumulated 33 points from 27 matches, with a record of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses. Their recent form shows some resilience with two wins in their last five matches, but they will need to improve their goal difference, which sits at -17, in order to climb higher in the standings. Toronto FC, on the other hand, is struggling in 13th place with 29 points from the same number of matches. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, reflected in their form of one win, one draw, and three losses in the last five matches. With 39 goals scored but also 51 conceded, their defensive vulnerabilities could be a major factor in this matchup. The model suggests New York Red Bulls have a strong win probability, bolstered by their home advantage at Sports Illustrated Stadium. However, a potential caveat is their tendency to concede goals, which could allow Toronto to capitalize if they can find their attacking rhythm. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
New York Red Bulls have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. New York Red Bulls are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.03 | 3.84 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.36 | 2.84 | |
| 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 4.01 | 3.30 | 1.45 | 2.82 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.38 | 2.83 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.25 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.85 | 3.30 | 1.47 | 2.80 | 1.40 | 2.80 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.20 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York Red Bulls leads 6-0)In the last 10 matches between New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC, New York Red Bulls have won 6 times, with 4 draws and Toronto FC yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a tendency for New York to dominate, as they have achieved several convincing wins, including a 4-1 result. Matches have often been tightly contested, with 4 draws showing that Toronto FC can hold their ground, but they have not scored more than one goal in any of their last encounters. The absence of wins for Toronto FC extends back through all recent fixtures, highlighting a significant challenge for them against this opponent.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 30 | 31 | 52 | DDLDW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 29 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 63 | 22 | 41 | 66 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 54 | 38 | 16 | 51 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 70 | 50 | 20 | 52 | WWLDD |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 41 | 7 | 49 | WLLWW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 53 | 45 | 8 | 50 | WLWDW |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 39 | 54 | -15 | 36 | LWLWW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 29 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 33 | DWLLL |
| 14 |  Austin | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 31 | LLDDW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 72 | -37 | 22 | LDLWL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 24 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York Red Bulls have won 8 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include beat San Diego 4-1 and lost to St. Louis City 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 18L from the last 37 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Nashville SC 2-0 and lost to St. Louis City 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 12D 13L from the last 36 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
3 playersNew York Red Bulls1
Toronto FC2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
New York Red Bulls have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Toronto FC 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New York Red Bulls have generated 1.52 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New York Red Bulls player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
