New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
Match Preview
The model favours Los Angeles FC to win this match against New York City FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 6th in the league, Los Angeles FC has accumulated 41 points from 28 matches, with a record of 11 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses. Their goal difference of +13 indicates a more potent attack and solid defense compared to their opponents. Despite a mixed recent form, they have performed better overall this season, scoring 43 goals while conceding only 30. In contrast, New York City FC sits in 9th place with 33 points from 27 matches, having won 8, drawn 9, and lost 10. Their goal difference of +5 suggests they have struggled to convert chances into goals consistently. Their recent form shows only one win in the last five matches, reflecting a challenging period as they look to improve their standings. The team's inability to secure wins has hindered their progress toward the playoff spots. The model gives Los Angeles FC a win probability of approximately 55%, while New York City FC's chances stand at 25%, with the remaining percentage for a draw. One caveat for Los Angeles FC could be their inconsistency in form, which might allow New York City FC to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full methodology of this prediction, based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis was prepared by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 72.5% probability.
Los Angeles FC have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 5-5 draw as the most likely scoreline at 72.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Los Angeles FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.63 | 3.44 | 2.47 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 1.56 | 2.24 | |
| 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.38 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.72 | 3.55 | 2.56 | 1.76 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 2.59 | 3.14 | 2.24 | 1.72 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.50 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 2.87 | 3.45 | 2.42 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (evenly matched 1-1)The head-to-head record between New York City FC and Los Angeles FC stands at 1 win for New York City FC, 5 draws, and 1 win for Los Angeles FC over their last 7 matches. This indicates a notably tight contest, with five matches ending in draws, suggesting that neither team has consistently dominated the other. The scorelines reveal a pattern of low-scoring encounters, with only one match resulting in a victory by more than a single goal. The last win for New York City FC came in May 2021, making it over two years since they last triumphed in this matchup.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 30 | 31 | 52 | DDLDW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 29 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 63 | 22 | 41 | 66 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 54 | 38 | 16 | 51 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 70 | 50 | 20 | 52 | WWLDD |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 41 | 7 | 49 | WLLWW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 53 | 45 | 8 | 50 | WLWDW |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 45 | WDLDL |
| 10 | New York City FC | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 | LLDLW |
| 14 |  Austin | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 31 | LLDDW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 72 | -37 | 22 | LDLWL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 24 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York City FC have won 6 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to New York City FC 0-1 and lost to New York City FC 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 11D 17L from the last 41 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Los Angeles FC have won 6 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Dallas 1-0 and drew with San Jose Earthquakes 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 15D 10L from the last 44 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersNew York City FC5
Los Angeles FC3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
New York City FC have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Los Angeles FC 7.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New York City FC have generated 1.42 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New York City FC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
