Orlando City SC vs DC United Prediction, Tips & Odds
Orlando City SC vs DC United
Match Preview
The model favours Orlando City SC to win against DC United, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Orlando currently sits in 7th place in the standings with 34 points from 27 matches, having secured 10 wins alongside 4 draws and 13 losses. Their goal-scoring has been relatively productive with 48 goals, although they have conceded 64, resulting in a negative goal difference of -16. Recent form shows a slight upturn, with two wins in their last five matches, suggesting they are finding some momentum as the season progresses. DC United, on the other hand, occupies the 11th position with 30 points from 26 games, recording 6 wins, 12 draws, and 8 losses. Their goal tally stands at 34, while they have conceded 42, leading to a goal difference of -8. Their recent form has been less encouraging, with only one win in the last five matches, and they have struggled to convert draws into victories. This inconsistency could hinder their chances against a more competitive Orlando side. The model indicates a win probability of around 55% for Orlando City SC, reflecting their superior league position and recent form. However, a caveat exists; if Orlando's defensive issues persist, they could be vulnerable to DC United's counter-attacks. The full methodology, which utilizes expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, courtesy of The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.7% probability.
Orlando City SC have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Orlando City SC win as the most likely scoreline at 11.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Orlando City SC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Orlando City SC vs DC United| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.64 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 1.28 | 3.08 | 1.35 | 2.88 | |
| 1.73 | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.36 | 3.10 | |
| 1.68 | 4.51 | 4.45 | 1.33 | 3.37 | — | — | |
| 1.72 | 3.76 | 3.33 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
| 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.34 | 3.25 | 1.34 | 3.10 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.40 | 4.20 | 1.29 | 3.40 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Orlando City SC and DC United stands at 4 wins for each side, with 2 matches ending in draws. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with both teams having equal success in their last 10 encounters. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests and some high-scoring games, such as Orlando's 5-0 victory and DC's 5-3 win. The frequency of draws suggests that when these teams meet, matches can be closely contested. Notably, DC United's last win against Orlando was in 2023, indicating that both teams have had recent successes against each other.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 30 | 31 | 52 | DDLDW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 29 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 63 | 22 | 41 | 66 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 54 | 38 | 16 | 51 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 70 | 50 | 20 | 52 | WWLDD |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 41 | 7 | 49 | WLLWW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 53 | 45 | 8 | 50 | WLWDW |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 69 | -15 | 38 | DWLLW |
| 12 | DC United | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 | WLDLD |
| 14 |  Austin | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 31 | LLDDW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 72 | -37 | 22 | LDLWL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 24 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonOrlando City SC have won 10 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Orlando City SC 3-2 and beat Orlando City SC 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 20L from the last 43 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
DC United have won 2 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to DC United 4-0 and drew with Vancouver Whitecaps 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 16D 13L from the last 35 games (17% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersOrlando City SC2
DC United4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Orlando City SC have averaged 4.1 corners per match at home; DC United 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Orlando City SC have generated 1.89 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Orlando City SC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
