Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte Prediction, Tips & Odds
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte
Match Preview
The model favours Philadelphia Union to win against Charlotte, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Philadelphia has been in impressive form lately, securing five consecutive victories that have propelled them into the playoff picture, currently sitting in 6th place. With a total of 54 goals scored this season, their attacking prowess is evident, and they have a positive goal difference of 10, which highlights their ability to outscore opponents. On the other hand, Charlotte currently occupies 4th place and has performed reasonably well this season with 12 wins to their name. However, their recent form has been less consistent, with only two wins in their last five matches. While they have a solid defensive record, allowing just 38 goals, their inability to maintain momentum in recent games could be a concern as they face a rejuvenated Philadelphia side. According to the model, Philadelphia Union has a stronger win probability for this match, reflecting their recent form and goal-scoring ability. One key market percentage suggests a robust backing for the home side. However, a potential caveat is that if Charlotte can stifle Philadelphia's attack early on, it may shift the match dynamics. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines the in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.3% probability.
Philadelphia Union have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Philadelphia Union win as the most likely scoreline at 12.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Philadelphia Union are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.47 | 4.80 | 5.35 | 1.28 | 3.08 | 1.42 | 2.61 | |
| 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 1.52 | 5.02 | 5.37 | 1.33 | 3.41 | — | — | |
| 1.42 | 4.25 | 4.81 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 1.50 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
Betano | 1.53 | 4.80 | 5.30 | 1.38 | 3.05 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 1.45 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 1.30 | 3.25 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Philadelphia Union and Charlotte stands at 4 wins for each team and 2 draws over their last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with no team achieving a clear upper hand. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests and a few more decisive outcomes, such as Charlotte's 4-0 victory in 2022. Overall, the matches have featured a combination of narrow wins and draws, suggesting competitive encounters, with the last win for either team occurring within the last two years.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 30 | 31 | 52 | DDLDW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 29 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 63 | 22 | 41 | 66 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 54 | 38 | 16 | 51 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 70 | 50 | 20 | 52 | WWLDD |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 41 | 7 | 49 | WLLWW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 53 | 45 | 8 | 50 | WLWDW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 46 | LWLWD |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 59 | 46 | 13 | 45 | WWWWW |
| 14 |  Austin | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 31 | LLDDW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 72 | -37 | 22 | LDLWL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 24 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPhiladelphia Union have won 11 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Philadelphia Union 2-1 and beat Philadelphia Union 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 7D 15L from the last 40 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Charlotte have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat DC United 1-2 and drew with FC Cincinnati 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 12L from the last 39 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
5 playersPhiladelphia Union1
Charlotte4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Philadelphia Union have averaged 5.6 corners per match at home; Charlotte 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Philadelphia Union have generated 1.99 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Philadelphia Union player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
