New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Prediction, Tips & Odds
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
Match Preview
The model favours New England Revolution to win against Chicago Fire, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. New England currently occupies second place in the standings, having accumulated 46 points from 27 matches with a record of 14 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses. Their goal difference of +9 highlights a solid attacking front, having scored 45 goals while conceding 36. Despite a recent dip in form with three wins in their last five matches, the team's overall performance this season positions them well for a strong finish. Chicago Fire sits in fifth place with 42 points from 26 matches, boasting a record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses. They have matched their goal tally with their goals conceded, scoring 46 while allowing 38. However, their recent form has been concerning, with only one win in their last five matches, including two draws and two losses. This decline in performance could impact their chances against a higher-ranked opponent. The model outputs a win probability of approximately 55% for New England Revolution, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market to consider is the over/under on total goals. One caveat is that if Chicago Fire can tighten their defence and disrupt New England's attacking rhythm, they could pull off an upset. The full method of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.7% probability.
New England Revolution have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. New England Revolution are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.34 | 3.74 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.56 | 1.38 | 2.76 | |
| 2.30 | 4.00 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 2.38 | 3.86 | 2.78 | 1.48 | 2.70 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.60 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.38 | 3.80 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
Betano | 2.42 | 3.70 | 2.70 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.39 | 2.85 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.70 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Chicago Fire leads 2-1)In the last 10 matches between New England Revolution and Chicago Fire, New England Revolution has won 1, drawn 7, and Chicago Fire has won 2. This record indicates a tendency for closely contested matches, with a notable frequency of draws, as evidenced by 7 out of 10 matches ending level. The scorelines further reflect this parity, with several matches featuring tight finishes, such as the 2-2 and 1-1 draws. Chicago Fire's last victory over New England Revolution occurred in May 2025, suggesting a struggle for consistent wins against their opponents in recent encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 30 | 31 | 52 | DDLDW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 29 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 63 | 22 | 41 | 66 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 54 | 38 | 16 | 51 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 70 | 50 | 20 | 52 | WWLDD |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 41 | 7 | 49 | WLLWW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 53 | 45 | 8 | 50 | WLWDW |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 43 | 9 | 48 | LWWWL |
| 14 |  Austin | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 31 | LLDDW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 72 | -37 | 22 | LDLWL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 24 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew England Revolution have won 12 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Seattle Sounders 0-3 and beat Orlando City SC 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 7D 14L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chicago Fire have won 8 of their last 23 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Charlotte 0-1 and lost to Nashville SC 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 10D 13L from the last 43 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersNew England Revolution4
Chicago Fire5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
New England Revolution have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; Chicago Fire 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New England Revolution have generated 1.89 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 6.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New England Revolution player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
