Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction, Tips & Odds
Newcastle vs Hull City
Match Preview
The model favours Newcastle to win against Hull City, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Newcastle currently sits in 7th place in the league after three matches, recording one win and two draws. Their goal-scoring has been decent, with six goals in total, but they have also conceded four, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities. The team's form shows they have yet to lose this season, with a trend of drawing matches that they will aim to convert into wins. On the other hand, Hull City is performing impressively, positioned 3rd with two wins and one draw from their three matches. They have not conceded any goals yet, boasting a perfect defensive record, which has contributed to their seven points. However, their goal-scoring has been modest, with only three goals scored, suggesting they may struggle to find the net against a stronger opponent like Newcastle. The model gives Newcastle a solid chance of winning, reflecting their home advantage and overall stronger attacking output. However, a key caveat is that Hull's strong defensive record could frustrate Newcastle's efforts to break through. The full prediction method, which incorporates expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs this in-house model to provide a comprehensive view of the match.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Newcastle have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Newcastle win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Newcastle clean sheets, in line with their 10% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Newcastle are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Newcastle vs Hull City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.61 | 4.33 | 5.25 | 1.60 | 2.16 | 1.67 | 2.08 | |
| 1.62 | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.57 | 2.30 | 1.67 | 2.20 | |
| 1.62 | 4.34 | 5.31 | 1.68 | 2.31 | — | — | |
| 1.52 | 3.87 | 4.82 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.62 | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.65 | 4.42 | 5.44 | 1.72 | 2.30 | 1.68 | 2.08 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 4.40 | 5.20 | 1.62 | 2.35 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.50 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Newcastle leads 3-1)In the last six matches between Newcastle and Hull City, Newcastle has won three times, there have been two draws, and Hull City has won once. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Newcastle to achieve decisive victories, with two of their wins coming by a margin of three goals or more. However, the matches have also featured competitive moments, evident in the two draws and Hull City's narrow 3-2 victory in 2013. The most recent match in July 2024 ended with Newcastle winning 2-0, suggesting a recent edge for Newcastle in this rivalry.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Hull City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 5 |  Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | DDW |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | WDD |
| 7 | Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | DWD |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 19 |  Fulham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNewcastle have won 6 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Bournemouth 2-2 and beat West Brom 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 13L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Hull City have won 7 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Coventry 0-1 and drew with Stoke City 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 9L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNewcastle4-2-3-1Confirmed
Hull City5-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersNewcastle
No reported absences
Hull City
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Tony Harrington has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Tony Harrington to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Newcastle have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Hull City 2.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Newcastle have generated 1.00 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Newcastle player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
