Newells Old Boys vs Lanus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Newells Old Boys vs Lanus
Match Preview
The model favours Lanus to win with a projected scoreline of 1-0. Currently sitting in 6th place, Lanus has demonstrated solid form this season, recording six wins and six draws from 16 matches, accumulating 24 points. Their goal difference of +3 indicates a competent attack and a reasonable defensive record, with 18 goals scored and only 15 conceded. In contrast, Newells Old Boys find themselves in 14th position, having won just three of their 16 matches, which has resulted in 15 points. Their recent form shows some improvement, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches. However, their overall goal difference of -12 suggests significant struggles both in scoring and defending, having conceded 27 goals while netting only 15. The model gives Lanus a win probability of 35.5%, with Newells Old Boys at 32.1% and a draw at 32.4%. While Lanus appears to be the stronger side on paper, Newells' recent unbeaten run could pose a challenge. One potential caveat is that if Lanus fails to convert their chances, a draw could become more likely. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which details our in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Newells Old Boys have kept a clean sheet in 25% of matches. Lanus average 1.1 goals per game.
Newells Old Boys manage games at home, conceding just 1.32 goals per match. Lanus score 1.05 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.7% probability.
Newells Old Boys have been the stronger side, winning 25% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Newells Old Boys are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Newells Old Boys vs Lanus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.73 | 2.86 | 2.78 | 2.56 | 1.40 | 2.11 | 1.63 | |
| 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.70 | 2.63 | 1.47 | 2.15 | 1.67 | |
| 2.89 | 2.92 | 2.90 | 2.77 | 1.48 | — | — | |
| 2.54 | 2.80 | 2.62 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.70 | 2.88 | 2.70 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.88 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 2.79 | 2.92 | 2.84 | 2.56 | 1.40 | 2.11 | 1.65 | |
Betano | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.85 | 2.75 | 1.47 | 2.15 | 1.65 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.48 | 1.45 | 2.10 | 1.65 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Newells Old Boys leads 8-2)In the last 10 matches between Newells Old Boys and Lanus, Newells Old Boys has won 8 times, while Lanus has secured 2 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided rivalry, with Newells Old Boys achieving several convincing wins, including a notable 5-0 victory. Lanus's two wins have been narrow, both ending 1-0. The lack of draws highlights a clear trend in favor of Newells Old Boys, and Lanus has not won against them since May 2023. Overall, the historical record suggests that Newells Old Boys has had a dominant edge in this matchup.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | DWWLW |
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LWLDL |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | LWWWD |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WDWDD |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | LDDWD |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 24 | DWWWL |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | DWDDD |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DLDDD |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNewells Old Boys have won 4 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Lanus 0-0 and drew with Velez Sarsfield 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 10D 11L from the last 28 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lanus have won 6 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Lanus 0-0 and beat Deportivo Riestra 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 14L from the last 38 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNewells Old Boys
No reported absences
Lanus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Dario Herrera has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Dario Herrera to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Newells Old Boys have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Lanus 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Newells Old Boys have generated 0.81 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 25% of them. They put 3.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Newells Old Boys player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
