Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield Prediction, Tips & Odds
Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield
Match Preview
The model favours Velez Sarsfield to win against Newells Old Boys, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Velez currently sits in third place in the Liga Profesional, having accumulated 28 points from 16 matches, with a strong record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and only 2 losses. Their defensive strength is evident, conceding just 12 goals this season, which contributes to a positive goal difference of +6. This solid form is reflected in their recent performance, with just one draw in their last five matches. In contrast, Newells Old Boys finds themselves in 14th position, struggling with only 15 points from their 16 games. Their record shows 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal difference of -12. They have managed to score only 15 goals this season, which highlights their difficulties in converting chances into goals. Despite a recent slight improvement with two wins in their last five matches, their overall form remains inconsistent. The model indicates a win probability of around 65% for Velez Sarsfield, with a projected score of 2-0. One market to consider is the likelihood of Velez winning by two goals. However, a potential caveat is Newells' home advantage, which could lead to an unexpected performance. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Newells Old Boys have kept a clean sheet in 17% of matches. Velez Sarsfield average 1.2 goals per game.
Newells Old Boys manage games at home, conceding just 1.46 goals per match. Velez Sarsfield score 1.21 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.3% probability.
Velez Sarsfield have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Velez Sarsfield are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.85 | 2.94 | 2.64 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 2.78 | 2.84 | 2.77 | 2.45 | 1.44 | 2.05 | 1.67 | |
| 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.70 | 2.63 | 1.47 | — | — | |
| 2.89 | 2.93 | 2.89 | 2.75 | 1.49 | — | — | |
| 2.56 | 2.73 | 2.54 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 2.83 | 2.89 | 2.82 | 2.45 | 1.44 | 2.05 | 1.69 | |
| 3.20 | 2.85 | 2.48 | 2.55 | 1.49 | 2.00 | 1.72 | |
| 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.63 | 2.63 | 1.44 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
Betano | 2.90 | 2.95 | 2.72 | 2.65 | 1.52 | 2.07 | 1.70 |
Superbet | 2.90 | 2.95 | 2.72 | 2.72 | 1.47 | 2.17 | 1.64 |
BetVictor | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.80 | 2.41 | 1.48 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Velez Sarsfield leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Newells Old Boys and Velez Sarsfield, Velez has won 6 times, Newells has won 2, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency toward Velez's dominance, with several narrow victories for both teams but also some heavier wins, including a 3-1 scoreline in favor of Velez. Newells has managed to secure only two wins in this stretch, both of which were by a single goal, while Velez's victories include a 2-0 and a 3-1 win, highlighting a relatively one-sided trend in recent encounters.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | WLDLW |
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | WLWDL |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | WDWDD |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | DWDDD |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | DDWDL |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | DDDWW |
| 14 |  Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 | LWLLD |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LLDDL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | LDDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNewells Old Boys have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Newells Old Boys 2-1 and drew with Newells Old Boys 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 9D 10L from the last 24 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Velez Sarsfield have won 4 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Deportivo Riestra 1-1 and drew with River Plate 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 11D 4L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNewells Old Boys4-2-3-1Confirmed
Velez Sarsfield
Not yet available
Unavailable Players
0 playersNewells Old Boys
No reported absences
Velez Sarsfield
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Newells Old Boys have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Velez Sarsfield 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Velez Sarsfield have generated 0.94 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Velez Sarsfield player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
