NK Varazdin vs FK Jablonec Prediction, Tips & Odds
NK Varazdin vs FK Jablonec
Match Preview
The model favours FK Jablonec to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Jablonec's recent form has been impressive, with four wins in their last five matches, including a strong finish to their recent fixtures. This momentum places them in a favorable position as they seek to advance in the UEFA Europa Conference League. On the other hand, NK Varazdin has also shown some resilience, winning four of their last five matches, though they did suffer a loss in that stretch. Consistency will be crucial for Varazdin as they aim to challenge Jablonec, but their overall season performance remains more variable compared to their opponents. The model output indicates a win probability favoring Jablonec, alongside a projected score of 2-1. While Jablonec appears to have the edge, a potential downside for them could be an over-reliance on recent form, which might not translate into success on the day. The full method for this prediction, based on expected goals and actual results across the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.5% probability.
NK Varazdin have been the stronger side, winning 71% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. NK Varazdin are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
NK Varazdin vs FK Jablonec| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.85 | 3.35 | 2.28 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| 2.68 | 3.24 | 2.52 | 1.92 | 1.84 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.45 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 2.72 | 3.25 | 2.57 | 1.98 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 2.66 | 2.99 | 2.17 | 1.91 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.68 | 3.24 | 2.52 | 1.92 | 1.84 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
| 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.40 | 1.79 | 1.88 | 1.64 | 2.08 | |
Betano | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.50 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.70 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 2.85 | 3.40 | 2.30 | 1.83 | 1.87 | 1.69 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.50 | 1.88 | 1.79 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between NK Varazdin and FK Jablonec stands at 0 wins for NK Varazdin, 1 draw, and 0 wins for FK Jablonec. Their only encounter ended in a 1-1 draw, indicating a tightly contested match. With no decisive victories recorded, this suggests a balanced matchup with neither side dominating the other. The draw reflects a low-scoring pattern, and it has been some time since either team has managed to secure a win against the other.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonNK Varazdin have won 6 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Beltinci 2-0 and beat Kustosija 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 1D 3L from the last 14 games (71% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FK Jablonec have won 0 of their last 5 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to NK Varazdin 3-2 and lost to FC Liefering 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 3D 6L from the last 16 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNK Varazdin4-2-3-1Confirmed
FK Jablonec3-4-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersNK Varazdin
No reported absences
FK Jablonec
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Marchetti has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Marchetti to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
NK Varazdin have averaged 2.6 corners per match at home; FK Jablonec 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
NK Varazdin have generated 1.43 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 71% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. NK Varazdin player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
