Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Match Preview
The model favours Arsenal to win against Nottingham Forest, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Arsenal currently sits in second place in the Premier League standings, having accumulated 12 points from their first five matches. Their season form is strong, with four wins and only one loss, showcasing a solid goal difference of +4. Notably, they have scored eight goals while conceding just four, indicating their attacking prowess and defensive stability. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, is positioned in 13th place with only five points from their five matches. Their form has been inconsistent, registering one win, two draws, and two losses. With a goal difference of -1, they have scored just four goals and conceded five, reflecting challenges in both their attack and defence. This underperformance may hinder their ability to secure points against a strong opponent like Arsenal. The model assigns a win probability of approximately 65% for Arsenal, while Nottingham Forest sits at around 20%. The key market percentage suggests Arsenal is likely to win by a margin of two goals. However, a potential caveat is that if Nottingham Forest can tighten their defence and capitalize on set pieces, they could make the match competitive. The full method of prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 35% of matches. Arsenal average 1.7 goals per game.
Nottingham Forest manage games at home, conceding just 0.97 goals per match. Arsenal score 1.74 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
Arsenal have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Arsenal win as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Arsenal are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.65 | 3.80 | 1.66 | 1.93 | 1.89 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
| 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.62 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 5.88 | 3.74 | 1.67 | 1.97 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 4.78 | 3.50 | 1.58 | 1.96 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 5.50 | 3.70 | 1.62 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.85 | |
| 5.75 | 3.90 | 1.62 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 5.80 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 1.99 | 1.95 | 1.87 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 5.40 | 3.90 | 1.65 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.88 | 1.85 |
BetVictor | 5.25 | 3.80 | 1.60 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Arsenal leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal, Nottingham Forest has won 2 times, there have been 2 draws, and Arsenal has won 6 times. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Arsenal to dominate, with several heavy wins, including two 5-0 victories. Nottingham Forest has managed to secure narrow wins, with their last victory over Arsenal occurring in January 2022. The presence of multiple draws and low-scoring games, such as the two 0-0 finishes, suggests that while Arsenal generally leads in head-to-head encounters, Nottingham Forest can compete closely at times.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 13 | WWWDL |
| 4 |  Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 | DWDDD |
| 5 |  Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | DWDDD |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 | LLWDD |
| 18 |  Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | LLDDD |
| 19 |  Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 2 | LDDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNottingham Forest have won 7 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Coventry 0-1 and drew with Tottenham 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 11D 12L from the last 37 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Arsenal have won 11 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Brighton 3-0 and beat Ipswich 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 25W 7D 7L from the last 39 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNottingham Forest
No reported absences
Arsenal
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Michael Oliver has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Nottingham Forest have averaged 5.4 corners per match at home; Arsenal 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Arsenal have generated 1.36 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 64% of them. They put 3.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Arsenal player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
