Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction, Tips & Odds
Brentford vs Liverpool
Match Preview
The model slightly favours Liverpool to win this match, predicting a scoreline of 2-1 in their favour. Both teams are tied on points, but Liverpool's recent form gives them an edge. They have recorded four wins and one draw in their last five matches, showcasing their ability to find the back of the net with a total of seven goals scored this season. Their defensive record is solid, conceding only four goals, which contributes to their positive goal difference. Brentford, on the other hand, is enjoying a strong season as well, sitting in fourth place with two wins and three draws, yet they remain unbeaten. While they have scored ten goals, their form shows two wins and three draws in their last five matches. Their defensive capabilities have been impressive, with only four goals conceded, but they will need to convert more of their draws into wins against a side like Liverpool. The model assigns a win probability of 38.8% for Liverpool, 36.0% for Brentford, and 25.2% for a draw. Additionally, there is a 60.7% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63.2% chance of both teams scoring. However, if Brentford can maintain their defensive solidity while capitalising on home advantage, they could upset expectations. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilising an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
Brentford have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Brentford are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Brentford vs Liverpool| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.45 | |
| 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.73 | 3.92 | 2.54 | 1.63 | 2.49 | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Liverpool leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Brentford and Liverpool, Liverpool has won 6 times, Brentford has won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitiveness and dominance, with several high-scoring encounters. Notably, Liverpool has secured heavy wins, including a 4-1 victory and a 3-0 win, while Brentford's victories have been narrower, with a 3-2 win being their highest margin. The most recent draw ended in a 1-1 stalemate, showing that Brentford can compete, but Liverpool's six wins suggest a historical advantage in this matchup.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 13 | WWWDL |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 | DWDDD |
| 5 |  Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | DWDDD |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 | LWDWD |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 19 |  Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 2 | LDDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBrentford have won 4 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Brentford 3-0 and drew with Brentford 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 13D 5L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Liverpool have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Bournemouth 0-1 and beat Ipswich 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 7D 12L from the last 36 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBrentford
No reported absences
Liverpool
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Brentford have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Liverpool 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Brentford have generated 1.87 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Brentford player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
