Everton vs Chelsea Prediction, Tips & Odds
Everton vs Chelsea
Match Preview
The model favours Chelsea to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Everton. Chelsea currently sits in 10th place in the league, with a record of two wins, one draw, and two losses from five matches. They have scored ten goals but conceded twelve, indicating a struggle defensively. However, their attacking prowess has shown potential, and they will look to exploit Everton's defence. Everton, on the other hand, is in 7th place with an unbeaten record of two wins and three draws, having scored six goals and conceded only three. Their solid defensive record is a key strength, as they have managed to keep opponents at bay. The team's recent form has been steady, with no losses in their last five matches, suggesting they are difficult to break down. The model gives Chelsea a 43.4% chance of winning, with Everton's win probability at 29.9%. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 56.5%, along with a 60.1% chance for both teams to score. One potential caveat for Chelsea is their inconsistent defensive performance, which could allow Everton to capitalize on any mistakes. The full method behind these predictions is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
Everton have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Everton are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Everton vs Chelsea| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.22 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.69 | 2.20 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
| 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.26 | 1.74 | 2.27 | 1.54 | 2.35 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Chelsea leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Everton and Chelsea over the last 10 matches shows Everton winning 3 times, Chelsea winning 4 times, and 3 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with Chelsea's 6-0 victory in 2024 being the most lopsided result. However, there have also been tightly contested matches, such as the 0-0 draw in 2024 and the recent 2-2 draw in 2023. Notably, Everton's last win against Chelsea was in December 2026, while Chelsea's last defeat to Everton was in March 2023, suggesting a competitive rivalry with no clear dominant side.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 13 | WWWDL |
| 4 |  Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 | DWDDD |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | DWDDD |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 19 |  Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 2 | LDDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEverton have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Ipswich 1-0 and beat Wolves 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 12D 9L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chelsea have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Brentford 3-0 and lost to Arsenal 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 5D 16L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersEverton
No reported absences
Chelsea
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Everton average 1.4 goals per match at home; Chelsea 2.1 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Everton have generated 1.06 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Everton player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
