Paide vs Vaprus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Paide vs Vaprus
Match Preview
The model favours Paide to win against Vaprus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Paide currently sits in fourth place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 32 points from 20 matches with a record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference of +4 reflects a solid attacking presence, having scored 32 goals while conceding 28. Recent form indicates they are in good shape, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. In contrast, Vaprus is positioned fifth, just below Paide, with 26 points from the same number of matches. Their record shows 8 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal difference of -10. Vaprus has struggled defensively this season, conceding 38 goals while only managing to score 28. Their recent form is concerning, having won just two of their last five matches, with three losses, which may impact their confidence going into this encounter. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Paide, while Vaprus has a 25% chance of winning, with a 20% likelihood of a draw. One caveat to consider is Vaprus's potential to pull off an upset, especially if they manage to improve their defensive cohesion. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Paide have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Paide win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Paide clean sheets, in line with their 24% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Paide are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Paide vs Vaprus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.34 | 4.65 | 6.35 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.56 | 2.21 | |
| 1.30 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 1.40 | 4.90 | 6.35 | 1.40 | 2.79 | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.20 | 5.13 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.35 | 4.65 | 6.64 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.56 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 1.42 | 4.40 | 5.60 | — | — | — | — |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 3.90 | 5.25 | 1.30 | 2.30 | 1.44 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Paide leads 7-3)In the last 10 encounters between Paide and Vaprus, Paide has won 7 times while Vaprus has secured 3 victories, with no matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive rivalry, though Paide has achieved several convincing wins, including a 3-0 and a 3-2. Vaprus's wins have been narrower, with a 1-0 victory being their only low-scoring success against Paide. The last time Vaprus triumphed in this matchup was in March 2026, suggesting a slight edge for Paide in recent meetings.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 | Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 7 | Vaprus | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 31 | WDLLD |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPaide have won 15 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 0-2 and beat Nõmme United 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 9D 12L from the last 41 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vaprus have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Nõmme United 3-2 and drew with Kuressaare 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 18L from the last 37 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPaide
No reported absences
Vaprus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Paide average 1.7 goals per match at home; Vaprus 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Paide have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 49% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. They put 2.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Paide player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.