Parma vs Torino Prediction, Tips & Odds
Parma vs Torino
Match Preview
The model favours Torino to win with a projected scoreline of 1-0. Both teams are currently struggling, sitting close to each other in the Serie A standings, with Torino slightly ahead in 14th place compared to Parma's 15th. Both have managed just one win each from their opening five matches, but Torino has scored more goals (5) than Parma (4), which could give them a slight edge in offensive capability. Parma's season has been marked by inconsistency, with their recent form showing one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five games. They have scored a total of four goals while conceding seven, resulting in a goal difference of -3. This lack of offensive output, particularly at home, could hinder their chances against a similarly positioned opponent. Torino, on the other hand, is also looking to find their footing after a lacklustre start to the season. Their recent form is slightly better, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. They have a marginally better goal-scoring record, which may provide them with the confidence needed to secure a crucial away win. According to the model, Torino has a 39.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 30.8%. One caveat for Torino is the potential for defensive lapses, as they have conceded eight goals so far this season. The full methodology, which includes expected goals and actual results analysis, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of matches. Torino average 1.2 goals per game.
Parma manage games at home, conceding just 1.23 goals per match. Torino score 1.16 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.6% probability.
Torino have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Torino are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Parma vs Torino| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.16 | 3.12 | 2.44 | 2.27 | 1.64 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 3.20 | 3.01 | 2.47 | 2.42 | 1.57 | — | — | |
| 2.73 | 2.95 | 2.35 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.85 | |
| 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.40 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 3.26 | 3.22 | 2.52 | 2.35 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 1.82 | |
Betano | 3.10 | 3.05 | 2.50 | 2.27 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Parma and Torino over the last ten matches stands at three wins for each team, with four draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitiveness and occasional one-sidedness, highlighted by Torino's 4-1 victory in March 2026 and Parma's narrow 2-1 win in September 2025. There have been four draws, suggesting a tendency for tightly contested matches. The last time either side enjoyed a significant winning streak was not recent, with both teams alternating victories and draws, which reflects a balanced rivalry rather than dominance by either side.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 | DLWLL |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonParma have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Genoa 2-1 and lost to Cremonese 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 10D 12L from the last 31 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Torino have won 4 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Torino 1-1 and beat Fiorentina 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 14L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersParma
No reported absences
Torino
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Parma have averaged 3.6 corners per match at home; Torino 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Torino have generated 1.44 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 2.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Torino player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
