PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction, Tips & Odds
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen
Match Preview
The model favours NEC Nijmegen to win against PEC Zwolle, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. NEC Nijmegen currently sits in 10th place in the Eredivisie standings, having played two matches this season. With one win and one loss, they have scored five goals while conceding three, resulting in a positive goal difference of two. Their attacking form has been notably stronger than Zwolle's, as they have managed to find the net consistently. In contrast, PEC Zwolle finds itself in 14th place after just one match, where they suffered a defeat with no goals scored and two conceded. Their recent form shows a struggle, with just one win in the last five matches, indicating ongoing difficulties in both attack and defence. The lack of goals highlights a pressing issue that Zwolle will need to address if they are to turn their season around. The model output gives NEC Nijmegen a win probability of approximately 60%, with the projected score of 2-0 aligning with their stronger offensive capabilities. However, a caveat is that if Zwolle can find a way to improve their attacking play and tighten their defence, they could pose a challenge. The full method behind this prediction, based on expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
NEC Nijmegen have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 NEC Nijmegen win as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. NEC Nijmegen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.33 | 4.20 | 1.67 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.19 | 4.09 | 1.79 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.45 | 2.66 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (NEC Nijmegen leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen, NEC Nijmegen has won 6 times, PEC Zwolle has secured 1 victory, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for NEC Nijmegen to dominate, with several matches resulting in narrow wins for them, such as 1-0 and 2-1, alongside a notable 4-3 win. PEC Zwolle's only win was by a 2-0 margin, which occurred in a match from 2017. The frequency of draws suggests some competitive encounters, but overall, NEC Nijmegen's stronger record highlights a clear advantage in this head-to-head rivalry.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | WWD |
| 3 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | LWW |
| 6 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | WL |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
| 16 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPEC Zwolle have won 5 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to PEC Zwolle 0-2 and lost to PEC Zwolle 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 6D 13L from the last 24 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
NEC Nijmegen have won 4 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Willem II 1-4 and drew with Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 10L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPEC Zwolle
No reported absences
NEC Nijmegen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
PEC Zwolle have averaged 3.2 corners per match at home; NEC Nijmegen 7.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
NEC Nijmegen have generated 2.44 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 6.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. NEC Nijmegen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
