Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction, Tips & Odds
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard
Match Preview
The model favours Groningen to win against Fortuna Sittard, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Groningen currently sits in fifth place in the Eredivisie, having won their opening match of the season. They scored two goals while conceding one, demonstrating a solid start to their campaign. Their last five matches show a mixed form with two wins, one draw, and two losses, but their ability to find the net early in the season could be crucial. On the other side, Fortuna Sittard is positioned tenth, having drawn their first match of the season. They also scored two goals but conceded the same number, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities. Their recent form reflects a similar trend to Groningen, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, suggesting they can be competitive but may struggle against teams with stronger starts. The model gives Groningen a win probability based on their current form and position, highlighting their advantage in this matchup. However, a potential caveat is that if Fortuna Sittard can tighten their defense and capitalize on counter-attacks, they could disrupt Groningen's plans. The methodology used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team relies on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season to reach these predictions.
Head to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Fortuna Sittard leads 5-4)Fortuna Sittard hold the edge in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 meetings with 1 draws and 4 Groningen wins. The record points to a tie Fortuna Sittard have controlled for years, though the draws show Groningen have at times kept it tight.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Groningen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | DW |
| 4 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 5 |  PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | DW |
| 8 | Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | LWD |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGroningen have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Utrecht 2-1 and beat Valladolid 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 4D 12L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Fortuna Sittard have won 3 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Fortuna Sittard 2-2 and lost to Metz 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 4D 11L from the last 24 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGroningen
No reported absences
Fortuna Sittard
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
