PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen Prediction, Tips & Odds
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen
Match Preview
The model favours Groningen to win against PSV Eindhoven, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Groningen enters this match in a stronger position, currently sitting sixth in the Eredivisie after one match, having secured a victory with a goal difference of +1. Their recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, indicating a positive trajectory as they look to build on their early success this season. PSV Eindhoven, on the other hand, occupies the tenth position in the standings with one draw and no wins in their opening match. They have scored two goals but conceded two as well, resulting in a goal difference of zero. Their last five matches have yielded only two wins, which raises concerns about their consistency. The pressure will be on them to turn their form around and secure a vital home win. The model gives Groningen a win probability of approximately 55%, while PSV’s chances stand at around 25%. A key market to watch is Groningen’s odds for a win, reflecting their current form and position. However, the unpredictability of early-season matchups means that PSV could still capitalize on home advantage if they find their rhythm. The full methodology behind this prediction is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.2% probability.
PSV Eindhoven have been the stronger side, winning 58% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 PSV Eindhoven win as the most likely scoreline at 12.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature PSV Eindhoven clean sheets, in line with their 12% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. PSV Eindhoven are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.35 | 5.30 | 7.20 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.31 | 5.55 | 7.80 | 1.25 | 3.30 | 1.49 | 2.40 | |
| 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.00 | 1.29 | 3.50 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 1.35 | 5.85 | 7.48 | 1.31 | 3.56 | — | — | |
| 1.32 | 5.03 | 5.99 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.34 | 5.78 | 8.10 | 1.25 | 3.30 | 1.49 | 2.44 | |
| 1.34 | 5.30 | 7.50 | 1.32 | 3.30 | 1.52 | 2.35 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.30 | 3.30 | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 1.38 | 5.60 | 8.00 | 1.34 | 3.25 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
Superbet | 1.36 | 5.60 | 7.10 | 1.34 | 3.30 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.75 | 8.00 | 1.29 | 3.40 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (PSV Eindhoven leads 9-1)In the last 10 encounters between PSV Eindhoven and Groningen, PSV has secured 9 wins while Groningen has managed just 1 victory, with no draws. The scorelines indicate a dominant trend for PSV, with several heavy wins including a 6-0 and a 5-0, suggesting a one-sided rivalry. Groningen's only win came in October 2022, but overall, they have struggled to keep pace with PSV, often conceding multiple goals. This lopsided record highlights PSV's strong historical advantage in this matchup.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Groningen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | DW |
| 4 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 5 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | DW |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPSV Eindhoven have won 10 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with PSV Eindhoven 2-2 and lost to PSV Eindhoven 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 4D 7L from the last 26 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Groningen have won 3 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Heracles 2-1 and lost to Ajax 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 4D 12L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersPSV Eindhoven1
Groningen5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Lindhout has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Lindhout to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
PSV Eindhoven have averaged 7.4 corners per match at home; Groningen 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
PSV Eindhoven have generated 2.06 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 58% of them. They put 6.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. PSV Eindhoven player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
