Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction, Tips & Odds
Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam
Match Preview
The model favours Excelsior to win against Sparta Rotterdam, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Excelsior currently sits in 9th place, having played two matches this season with a record of one win and one loss. They have scored five goals while conceding two, resulting in a positive goal difference of three. Their recent form is strong, with four wins in their last five matches, showcasing their attacking capabilities and resilience. In contrast, Sparta Rotterdam is positioned 11th, also with one win and one loss from two matches. They have netted three goals and allowed two, giving them a goal difference of one. However, their recent performances have been less impressive, with only one win in their last five matches, along with two draws and two losses. This inconsistency could hinder their ability to challenge Excelsior effectively. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Excelsior, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of Excelsior winning at home, which stands at approximately 55%. A potential caveat for this prediction is that if Sparta Rotterdam can tighten their defence and exploit any lapses in Excelsior's backline, they could pull off a surprise result. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Excelsior have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Excelsior are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.10 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.12 | 3.66 | 3.36 | 1.71 | 2.18 | 1.57 | 2.34 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sparta Rotterdam leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam, the record shows Excelsior winning 4 times, drawing once, and Sparta Rotterdam winning 5 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close encounters, including three matches decided by a single goal. However, Sparta has managed to secure a few heavier wins, such as a 4-2 victory and a 4-1 win. The most recent match ended with Sparta winning 1-0, highlighting their slight edge in this fixture. Overall, the results reflect a balanced but slightly favorable history for Sparta Rotterdam.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Groningen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | DW |
| 4 |  Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | WD |
| 5 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 6 |  PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 9 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | LW |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | WL |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonExcelsior have won 2 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to PSV Eindhoven 1-2 and beat Cambuur 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 8L from the last 25 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sparta Rotterdam have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 and lost to Zulte Waregem 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 7D 11L from the last 26 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersExcelsior
No reported absences
Sparta Rotterdam
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Excelsior have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Sparta Rotterdam 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Excelsior have generated 1.25 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Excelsior player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.