Puebla vs Atlante FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Puebla vs Atlante FC
Match Preview
The model favours Puebla to win against Atlante FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Puebla is currently positioned 9th in the league with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from 6 matches. They have managed to score 9 goals while conceding the same number, indicating a balanced performance so far this season. Their recent form shows some inconsistency, but they have secured two wins in their last five matches, highlighting their potential to find a way to win. On the other hand, Atlante FC sits 14th in the standings, having played 7 matches with only 1 win, alongside 4 draws and 2 losses. They have scored 7 goals but have also conceded 9, resulting in a negative goal difference. Their form has been particularly concerning, as they have yet to secure a win in their last five matches, recording two draws and three losses. This lack of form could hinder their ability to compete effectively against a mid-table side like Puebla. The model gives Puebla a win probability of around 55%, while Atlante FC's chances sit at approximately 25%. A key market percentage indicates that Puebla is favoured to win by a margin of 1 goal. However, the caveat is that if Atlante can improve their performance and secure a draw or steal a win, the outcome could shift unexpectedly. The full method, which utilizes expected goals and actual results across the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Puebla have been the stronger side, winning 28% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Puebla are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Puebla vs Atlante FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.29 | 3.30 | 2.89 | 1.80 | 1.93 | 1.63 | 2.11 | |
| 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.90 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 2.40 | 3.54 | 2.99 | 1.88 | 2.01 | — | — | |
| 2.24 | 3.18 | 2.86 | 1.87 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.10 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.90 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.31 | 3.30 | 2.92 | 1.80 | 1.93 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
Betano | 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.95 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.90 | 1.78 | 1.90 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Atlante FC leads 1-0)In their only recent match, Atlante FC has a 1-0 victory over Puebla. This narrow win indicates a tightly contested encounter, with neither side managing to score more than once. Since there is only one fixture to analyze, it does not provide a clear trend or pattern between the two teams. Puebla has yet to secure a win against Atlante FC in this head-to-head matchup, and the absence of draws further emphasizes the competitive nature of their meetings.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WWWLL |
| 5 |  Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | LWLWD |
| 7 | Puebla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 | WLWWD |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 | LDDLD |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWDLD |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPuebla have won 4 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Puebla 3-2 and drew with Puebla 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 5D 16L from the last 29 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Atlante FC have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Atlas 1-1 and lost to Tigres UANL 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 7D 9L from the last 21 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedPuebla4-1-4-1Confirmed
Atlante FC5-3-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersPuebla
No reported absences
Atlante FC
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Aldo Ballesteros Barba has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Aldo Ballesteros Barba to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Puebla have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Atlante FC 3.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Puebla have generated 0.89 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 28% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Puebla player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
